Let's Face It: 'La La Land' Is Going to Win a Bunch of Oscars

From Esquire

The Oscars are fast upon us, which means only one thing: Awards season is finally ending! Six months of slogging through articles predicting every bit of Oscar minutiae, analyzing which films have a shot at the big prize, and what that might mean for Hollywood, America, and the world at large. Emotions get heightened as sides are picked. If La La Land wins everything, then Hollywood is a fascist propaganda machine. If Moonlight wins, it's just the film industry trying to look good in the face of #OscarsSoWhite. If Hacksaw Ridge wins… OK, Hacksaw Ridge isn't winning anything.

Much as we would all like the infighting to be over, we should admit that we love it. This is the Superbowl for people who don't watch or understand football. It's our sport. We know it's bad. That it's just a bunch of wealthy people patting each other on the back, and at the end of the day it doesn't really matter. But whether or not the Oscars "matter" doesn't matter one bit. What's important is that we get to think about movies and talk about movies and argue about movies and make a case for why we love the movies we love (and hate the movies we hate). It's important, not because it ultimately means anything, but because having fun and getting to care about something so ultimately trivial is the stuff of life.

I say all of this in a sorry attempt to justify this article's existence. I am about to predict for you, dear reader, the winners of the 2017 Academy Awards.

Some ground rules:

1. Don't @ me.

2. I take ownership of everything I get wrong. In fact, in at least a couple of categories I hope I'm wrong.

3. I'm not going to cover every nominee, because do you really care about who wins for Best Visual Effects or Best Sound Editing or Best Animated Short Film? The answer is "no," you definitely don't, and I'm not interested either.

4. La La Land is a great movie, and I'm leaving it at that.

Alright, onward!

Best Picture

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

La La Land will win. Next!

What? You need more explanation than that? Fine. La La Land is nominated in 14 categories, which ties Titanic and All About Eve for the most nominations ever. Do you know what else those movies have in common? They won Best Picture. I'll admit that Moonlight has an outside shot, especially if the Academy follows the relatively recent trend of splitting the Best Picture and Best Director prizes between two films, but La La Land is still the clear favorite here. I've heard talk of a possible Hidden Figures upset because people loved it and it made a lot of money. Well, I'll believe it when I see it.

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Damien Chazelle will win for La La Land. But I'll admit I'm less than certain of this. I feel some sort of split coming. It could go the other way around with Chazelle taking Director while Moonlight gets Picture, but I suspect it's more likely we'll see what would amount to pity award for Barry Jenkins in the directing category. Pity or not, Jenkins would be the first black director to win the award, and honestly he's more deserving. I'd put my money on Chazelle, but I wouldn't be upset to lose that bet.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington, Fences

This is an interesting category, if only for the shift that's taken place over the season. This was Casey Affleck's award to lose, but lately it's looking like he's out of the running. His was the best performance of the year, but there's nothing wrong with denying to an award to an accused sexual predator. No, the winner this year will be Denzel Washington for Fences, whose performance is more than worthy of an award. He'll get it because he's great in the movie, and because it was his passion project, and because people love Denzel. All very good reasons.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

The winner here will be Emma Stone for La La Land. This is a competitive field, though. You've got Natalie Portman playing a famous person, which the Academy loves. Then there's Ruth Negga, who's generally amazing, also playing a true-life figure. Finally, Isabelle Huppert has an outside shot for her intensely complicated performance in Elle. I'd say if any of those women pose a threat to Stone, it's Huppert. But Emma Stone will win.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Here we have a foregone conclusion with little chance for an upset: Mahershala Ali will win his performance in Moonlight, and he'll completely deserve it. His work in the film is extraordinary. I suppose if anyone might challenge Ali, it'll be Jeff Bridges, whose role is really more of a lead. He's great, and the Academy voters love him, but he's unlikely to pull off the upset.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Another competitive category from the women. The winner here will almost certainly be Viola Davis for her incredible performance in Fences. The only thing standing in her was is a possible backlash for the fact that she clearly has a leading role, and was stuffed in this category to give her a lock on the win. That sort of blatant politicking rubs a lot of people the wrong way, and it's the sort of thing that could lead to a big upset. If on the off chance that backlash does play out, then there's a chance Naomie Harris will take. Still, this one is Viola Davis's to lose, and she probably won't. Personally, I can't wait for her speech.

Odds and Ends

Here I'll quickly give my take on some of the other categories. I think La La Land will win Best Original Screenplay, which is ridiculous, while Best Adapted Screenplay will go to Moonlight, where it thankfully doesn't have to compete with the steamroller that is La La Land. Best Documentary is a stacked category this year, and the likely-and deserving!-winner will be O.J.: Made in America.

Meanwhile, Best Foreign Language Film is a race between Toni Erdmann and The Salesman, but I'm going to predict a win for The Salesman, the Iranian film by past winner Asghar Farhadi. Its win will be a strong political statement, and an important one. There are worse reasons to win an Oscar.

Finally, in Best Sound Editing… just kidding. Happy Oscars!

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