Latest gloomy Apple analysis projects 25% chance of guidance miss

Apple Earnings Analysis Q2 2013
Apple Earnings Analysis Q2 2013

It used to be that Apple (AAPL) would intentionally low-ball its quarterly guidance so it could crush expectations with better-than-expected earnings. But now that Apple has started issuing more realistic guidance, it’s running the risk of missing expectations by a considerable margin. And according to a new estimate from Jefferies & Company analyst Peter Misek, there’s a significant chance that Apple’s earnings might be even worse than its own projections this quarter. Per StreetInsider, Misek released a new research note on Tuesday that not only slashed the company’s price target from $500 to $420, but also projected a 25% chance that Apple would miss its own guidance for the fiscal second quarter.

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Among other things, Misek cut his quarterly iPhone sales estimate from 37.5 million to 35 million while also slashing his quarterly revenue estimate to $41 billion, which happens to be on the low-end of Apple’s quarterly guidance. Misek’s supply chain checks also indicate that Apple is having production problems with its upcoming products, including the new casing colors for the iPhone 5S and the new IGZO display for its next-generation iPad.

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Misek also thinks that Apple is making a big push to move up the launch of the iPhone 6, which is rumored to be Apple’s first smartphone with a screen of at least 5 inches, so it can ”stop the hemorrhaging to phablets.”

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