Lake Effect: What changes scientists are seeing on Lake Michigan
Editor’s Note: “Lake Effect,” a Storm Team 8 special, was disrupted by a tornado warning on Monday night. It will run its entirety on Saturday, May 25 at 7 p.m. on WOOD TV8 and Sunday, May 26 at 1 p.m. on WXSP. However, the first segment of it can be found above.
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — Scientists have been discovering small changes on Lake Michigan that could lead to big impacts on fishing, tourism and those who make their livelihood on the water.
A slightly warmer, windier and wetter climate has already begun to change the footprint of the lake and its impact on West Michigan. Here’s how:
Inside woodtv.com: Storm Team 8 forecast
BIG WATER LEVEL CHANGES HARDER TO PREDICT
Water level rises and falls are common in Lake Michigan. Accurate records beginning in 1918 reveal a fluctuating pattern of high water followed by spans of low water level years. The record highest water level occurred in October of 1986 on Lake Michigan, although the rise in 2020 caused many individual monthly records to be smashed.
The rise in 2020 led to rapid erosion that damaged some properties and required costly repairs. The rise was followed by a sharp drop, leaving current levels near average.
Inside woodtv.com: Rising waters in 2020
Lauren Fry, Ph.D., a physical scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said there haven’t been any clear trends indicating more frequent high water on Lakes Michigan and Huron, which function as a single lake.
“Over the long term (1918-2013), no discernible trend in lakewide averages has been observed,” Fry said.
Fry said that while Michigan has been trending wetter over the decades, water level rise has likely been countered by increased evaporation during winter months due to less lake ice coverage.
Fry also noted the water level rises and falls have become harder to predict.
SLOW WARMING TRENDING, FISHING AND ALGAL BLOOMS
Research shows Lake Michigan’s deep water temperature has been warming at .11 degrees Farenheit per decade. The slow warming trend is expected to have an amplified reach on Lake Michigan’s ecosystems, especially the fishing industry.
How is the warm weather affecting Michigan’s fish population?
Surface water on Lake Michigan is also warming. According to Jay Wesley from the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, fishermen will need to head farther from shore into the lake to catch valuable fish. Whitefish are also in decline due to a combination of invasive species effects and low lake ice in the winter.
Inland lakes will continue to be the most susceptible to algae blooms compared to Lake Michigan. Mark Luttenton, Ph.D., the interim director at the Grand Valley State University Robert B. Annis Water Resources Institute, said thermoclines on inland lakes are noticeably deeper. A thermocline is the transition layer between the warmer mixed water at the surface and the cooler deep water below, NOAA explains.
The depth of surface warm water is now extending at least 10 feet deeper than it used to in inland lakes. This has made algae blooms more common on inland lakes, especially those with a high phosphorus content due to excess fertilizer and road salt runoff.
“Just 15 years ago, we discovered a harmful cyanobacteria here that was never here before that normally occurs in Florida or in subtropical estuaries. It’s the warmer waters and all the saltier conditions we are making from road salting and that gives it temporary refuge here,” Bopaiah Biddanda, Ph.D., a professor of water resources at the Annis institute, said.
Online: Michigan harmful algal bloom map
Lake Michigan has a low nutrient content, making algae blooms more difficult to form.
ICE COVERAGE ON SLOW DECLINE
Lake ice records began in the 1970s. According to scientists at the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, the Great Lakes are experiencing a downward trend in ice coverage each decade.
Online: Track of ice coverage trends
This past winter was the lowest Great Lakes ice coverage on record, likely at least in part due to a strong El Nino. Scientists who track lake ice say the Great Lakes ice season is 46 days shorter than it was 50 years ago.
Early January and almost no ice on Lake Michigan
STRONG SPRING STORMS REMAIN UNCHANGED
During the spring, lower Michigan has historically seen some of its most powerful tornadoes and damaging wind events:
In spring, storms are much less likely to interact with the surface waters of Lake Michigan. Instead of the cold water of the lake “killing” a storm, a system is more likely to become elevated. The strongest storms have so much upper-level support that they ride over the cold air dome produced by Lake Michigan’s waters and stay completely untouched.
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A slightly warmer, wetter and windier trend will likely not change the climatology of West Michigan for spring storms.
“There is kind of a cold dome or a mini area of high pressure over the lake (that) forms and the storms don’t feel it and ride right over the top,” Bob Dukesherer, a meterologist with the National Weather Service, said of the spring storms.
There could be changes in the summer, when storms riding over the lake may be slightly stronger and those forming in the lake shadow may be slightly weaker due to a lessened temperature difference between lake-to-land.
In both seasons, the intensity and frequency of storms are not expected to change considerably with a warmer, wetter or windier trend.
SWIM RISK MAY RISE
Lake Michigan is the deadliest of all the Great Lakes. Data from the Great Lakes Surf Rescue Project shows that over the last five years, between 40% and half of drownings across the Great Lakes have happened on Lake Michigan.
The reason is Lake Michigan’s strong currents. It has the longest north-south shoreline of any of the Great Lakes. Storms in the Great Lakes usually come in from the west, which can quickly kick up currents along the shoreline and the east-west piers that jut out into the waters.
Most water rescues happen when waves are around 3 feet.
Dangerous Waters: Currents on Lake Michigan shores
Bob Pratt, director of the Great Lakes Surf Rescue Project, said a trend toward warmer and windier weather might set the stage for more hazardous days.
“When we have the Cs — cool, calm, cloudy days — we tend to see less people at the beach and fewer drownings. When … we get the warm, windy weekend, we get more people at the beach and more drownings,” Pratt said.
Invasive species are also changing Lake Michigan. Storm Team 8 looked at how zebra and quagga mussels are making the water clearer and, in many cases, accelerating the decay of shipwrecks. See that report when “Lake Effect” airs on WOOD TV8.
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