Kern ag property holding its value amid expectations for decline

May 19—Farmland values mostly held steady in Kern County during the first quarter of this year, according to a report released Friday by Bakersfield brokerage and appraisal firm Alliance Ag.

Across a variety of acreage representing land in different local water districts, price data show valuations were unchanged on the lower end of prices and mostly steady on the upper end.

The overall stability is notable if only because farmland has generally slid in recent years under pressure from the recent drought and tough economic times for growers of almonds, table grapes and other local commodities.

Among few changes from the fourth quarter of last year was a significant bump in citrus acreage at the upper end and a rare decline in pistachio land at the higher range of prices.

Another shift evident during the historically wet first quarter was that high-end values climbed for land in areas served by the Kern River, as well as acreage served by the federal Central Valley Project water conveyance system.

Alliance principal Mike Ming offered some interpretation of the numbers, noting in an email Friday that pistachio land values had jumped as a replacement for almond investments. He said that trend appears to have moderated.

"Investors moved focus from almonds to pistachios creating a short-term bubble, which is subsiding," Ming wrote.

He added that ag fund managers he hears from are waiting to see what happens between now and the first quarter of next year, when expectations are that values will dip and thereby become more attractive for purchase.

"In ag real estate you see originally overpriced listings being reduced aggressively," he stated. "Investors don't want to catch a falling knife as they know there could be additional downside risk."