Kentucky’s most likely destination for first week of the NCAA Tournament is clearing up

Just one Kentucky basketball game remains in the regular season.

What do the college basketball bracketologists think about the Wildcats going into Saturday’s clash with No. 4-ranked Tennessee in Knoxville?

Most of the national bracket projections have Kentucky as a 4 seed going into this weekend’s finale against the Volunteers, who wrapped up the outright SEC championship Wednesday night and represent a major opportunity for another marquee victory for UK’s tournament résumé.

ESPN’s Bracketology board — updated Friday morning — had the Cats as a 4 seed, playing the first week of games in Pittsburgh and slotted into the Detroit regional.

Other bracketology projections — from USA Today, Fox Sports and the Bracketville blog — that have been updated since Kentucky’s win against Vanderbilt on Wednesday night also predict the Cats will end up as a 4 seed on Selection Sunday, with Pittsburgh and Spokane as the possible first-week landing spots on those boards.

CBS Sports, which has rated UK a bit lower than other bracket websites throughout the 2023-24 season, still has the Wildcats as a 5 seed, staying out west with first-week games in Salt Lake City and possible regional games in Los Angeles.

There’s still some basketball to be played before the March 17 selection show — with next week’s SEC Tournament to follow the matchup with Tennessee on Saturday — but the current dynamics of the seed list and the NCAA’s bracketing principles make it a little easier to figure out where Kentucky might be most likely to end up when March Madness begins in less than two weeks.

Where will the Wildcats go?

The NCAA Tournament selection committee slots the top teams on its final seed list into first-week sites based on their ranking and geographical proximity to those first-round locations.

Plainly put, the teams at the top of the list get first preference at the closest available site. In 2024, the opening NCAA Tournament sites will be Brooklyn, Charlotte, Indianapolis, Memphis, Omaha, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City and Spokane.

The bracketing principles make it pretty simple to predict where the highest-rated teams in college basketball will end up — Purdue, UConn and Houston, for example — but it gets tougher to project first-round sites the further down the seed list you go.

The combination of this year’s top teams and available sites make it a little easier, however.

Using the Friday morning seed list at Bracketville — a website maintained by longtime bracketologist Dave Ommen — as an example, the assignment of first-round sites is pretty straightforward. Here’s where the top 10 teams on that list would be sent:

▪ 1. Purdue (Indianapolis).

▪ 2. UConn (Brooklyn).

▪ 3. Houston (Memphis).

▪ 4. Tennessee (Charlotte).

▪ 5. Arizona (Salt Lake City).

▪ 6. North Carolina (Charlotte).

▪ 7. Baylor (Memphis).

▪ 8. Iowa State (Omaha).

▪ 9. Marquette (Indianapolis).

▪ 10. Kansas (Omaha).

For all 10 of these teams, the site assigned above is actually the closest first-round location to each campus, so any shuffling within this top 10 wouldn’t matter. These teams would still go to these first-round sites.

So if Kentucky can’t pass any of these teams between now and next Sunday — and that isn’t to say the Cats can’t do it, though they’d likely need a win in Knoxville and an SEC Tournament run to do so — it would effectively rule out a first-round trip to Indianapolis, Charlotte, Memphis or Omaha.

That would leave Brooklyn, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City and Spokane as UK’s only possible destinations. So, one of these four seems to be the most likely choice for the Cats.

None of those top 10 teams has Pittsburgh as its closest first-round site, and — of those four most likely destinations for UK — that would be the closest geographically to Lexington. (It’s also John Calipari’s hometown, while Tre Mitchell and Adou Thiero are from the area, too.)

Ommen’s seed list had Kentucky at No. 13 — with Duke and Creighton ahead of them — and that placement would send UK to Pittsburgh. The Fox Sports seed list — compiled by longtime college basketball reporter Mike DeCourcy — also has Kentucky at No. 13 with the same 12 teams in front of the Cats, so it, too, would send UK to Pittsburgh.

If the Cats can maintain that position — or pick up a little ground — Pittsburgh seems like a logical landing spot. They could still get the final Indianapolis spot, but they’d need to pass both Marquette and Creighton to do so. Not impossible, but Kentucky would likely have to do a lot of winning — starting Saturday in Knoxville — and get some help beyond that.

The other two nearest sites — Charlotte and Memphis — are almost certainly out, since it’s highly unlikely UK will pass Houston, Tennessee, UNC or Baylor at this point.

The Wildcats probably have more potential ground to gain than lose. Even the worst-case scenario of a loss at Tennessee (a projected 1 seed) and a first-game exit in the SEC Tournament shouldn’t hurt the Cats’ résumé too much.

But even a slight drop from the current projections could have huge travel implications.

Based on the teams around UK at the moment — Alabama, Auburn and Illinois are in the 14-16 spots on both Ommen’s and DeCourcy’s seed lists — whoever ends up in the No. 15 and No. 16 spots on Selection Sunday will end up in Spokane.

If Kentucky falls below the 4 seed line, its first-round placement becomes more dependent on other factors across the bracket, and, therefore, more difficult to predict.

But, for now, the Cats have a good shot to start the NCAA Tournament in Calipari’s hometown. Win Saturday and make a run at the SEC Tournament title, and a short trip to Indy might be in play. But a slight stumble — or a run from a team near them on the seed list — and they could very well end up out in Spokane.

Selection Sunday will be here soon enough.

Next game

No. 15 Kentucky at No. 4 Tennessee

When: 4 p.m. Saturday

TV: CBS-27

Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1

Records: Kentucky 22-8 (12-5 SEC), Tennessee 24-6 (14-3)

Series: Kentucky leads 160-78

Last meeting: Tennessee won 103-92 on Feb. 3 in Lexington

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