These are The KC Star’s favorite upset picks in the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket

It’s NCAA Tournament time, and there’s really nothing like it in sports.

Sure, there are other playoffs and single-elimination tournaments, but the sports-watching nation will live and die with small schools no one has ever heard of over the next three weekends ... and remember those names for far too long.

Florida Gulf Coast ring a bell? How about UMBC, Saint Peter’s, Mercer, Oral Roberts and on and on.

Of course, many a bracket has been destroyed by those very teams, and some (Norfolk State, Bucknell, Bradley) represent some bitter memories for fans in the KC area (and beyond).

Who is this year’s Cinderella? For that, we turn to our Kansas City Star staff. I asked each writer, regardless of beat, to pick their favorite upset, and one team came up more than any other.

Here are those picks (and brief explanations):

No. 8 seed FAU over No. 1 UConn (1 vote)

By Vahe Gregorian, Star columnist

Since we might as well be bold picking an upset, I’ll go with one most will figure is highly improbable: Eighth-seeded Florida Atlantic to beat defending national champ and No. 1 seed Connecticut after the Owls get by Northwestern in the East Regional opener.

FAU sputtered a bit down the stretch but has back most of the essential cogs of the team that went to the Final Four last season. And earlier this season, FAU beat second-seeded Arizona in double overtime and trailed another No. 2 seed, Illinois, by just two before the Illini made 9 of 10 free throws in the final 2:01. It won’t sneak up on anyone this time around, but that kind of accomplished continuity can go a long way when it comes to NCAA play.

No. 11 seed Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina (1 vote)

By Pete Grathoff, Star sports reporter

The Ducks entered the Pac-12 Tournament having not won three straight games in two months. Naturally, they won three straight and snagged an NCAA Tournament berth. Oregon defeated a very good Arizona team in Las Vegas last weekend, so the Ducks could give South Carolina trouble. The Gamecocks have a good record (26-7), but they finished second in the nation in the KenPom.com “Luck” rating.

KenPom also has South Carolina ranked 49th in the nation, just six spots ahead of the Ducks. If Oregon wins, it could set up an interesting matchup against Creighton, which has Ducks coach Dana Altman in its athletics hall of fame.

No. 12 seed Grand Canyon over No. 5 Saint Mary’s (2 votes)

By Gary Bedore, KU beat writer

My upset pick to at least win two games in the 2024 NCAA Tournament is 12 seed Grand Canyon. Former KU Jayhawk guard Tyon Grant-Foster is a man on a mission after overcoming a health condition that sidelined him at DePaul. In all, the Schlagle High graduate has played at Indian Hills (Iowa) Community College, Kansas and DePaul, as well as GCU.

I have the GCU Lopes defeating No. 5-seeded Saint Mary’s, then knocking off No. 4 Alabama or No. 13 Charleston in the Round of 32. Their run could end after that or they could be a true Cinderella under coach Bryce Drew.

By Blair Kerkhoff, Chiefs beat writer

No. 12 Grand Canyon over No. 5 Saint Mary’s — it doesn’t seem right to pick a mid-major over a mid-major, but this game fits the 12-over-5 upset profile.

Grand Canyon, ranked 53rd in Kenpom, is under-seeded, and the Lopes are coached by Bryce Drew, who knows something about pulling off upsets in March. Remember his buzzer-beater for Valparaiso in 1998?

No. 11 seed New Mexico to the Sweet 16 (4 votes)

By Taylor Eldridge, Wichita State beat writer (The Eagle)

The Mountain West disappointed in last year’s tournament, but the conference will bounce back in a big way this spring. I wouldn’t be surprised to see multiple Mountain West teams in the Sweet 16, but I like the Lobos the best. They’re playing well at the moment, punching their ticket by winning the conference tournament, and they are the No. 23-ranked team on KenPom.

The Lobos defend well, rebound well and don’t rely on the 3 ball, which should allow them to upset Clemson and Baylor en route to a Sweet 16 appearance.

By Kellis Robinett, Kansas State beat writer

It almost feels like cheating to describe New Mexico as an upset candidate against Clemson. The Lobos (23) are rated higher than the Tigers (34) by Ken Pomeroy and favored (by 2.5) in this first-round game. But casual fans will shout “Cinderella” if New Mexico wins, so it counts.

I like New Mexico because most of its losses came with injured lineups this season. They are healthy now and coming off four dominant wins at the Mountain West Tournament. They are also one of the most balanced teams in the country, ranking inside the top 40 on both offense and defense. I won’t be surprised if New Mexico beats Baylor in the second round and advances to the Sweet 16.

By Maddie Hartley, Star digital editor/reporter

My favorite upset pick probably has to be No. 11 New Mexico over No. 6 Clemson, I feel like it’s a clear case of under-seeding for the Lobos, and I’m not sure how much of a true upset this would be considering they’re even favored in the sports books right now.

Regardless, they’re ranked 23rd at KenPom, and they got hot at the right time to win the Mountain West tourney. Plus, I like the backcourt with Jaelen House (16.1 PPG), Donovan Dent (14.3 PPG) and Jamal Mashburn Jr. (14.4 PPG). I think this will be one of the better first-round matchups and several MWC teams have something to prove in the early moments of the tournament — New Mexico included.

Editor’s note: Shreyas Laddha, The Star’s KU beat reporter, also picked New Mexico as his upset team. We’ll forgive him for being a little too busy to expand because of some breaking news regarding Kansas and star guard Kevin McCullar (out for tournament).

Two No. 6 seeds — both from the Big 12 — will make the Sweet 16 (1 vote)

By Jesse Newell, Chiefs beat writer, former KU beat writer

BYU and Texas Tech both exited the Big 12 Tournament with a thud, but that shouldn’t dampen confidence in them this weekend. Each team has excellent underlying statistics, according to data at ShotQuality.com, while staring down bracket paths that aren’t overly daunting. The Cougars would likely face an Illinois team in the Round of 32 that has defensive issues, while the Red Raiders could get third-seeded Kentucky that — based on efficiency numbers — is overseeded as a 3.

Look for BYU and Texas Tech to both advance to the second weekend, giving the Big 12 a chance at major bragging rights as the tourney unfolds.

No. 13 seed Yale over No. 4 seed Auburn (1 vote)

By Jaylon Thompson, Royals beat writer

Yale is a prototypical small-school March Madness team. They have veteran upperclassmen and caught fire at the right time.

Don’t let their 22-9 record fool you. These Bulldogs have bite and a head coach in James Jones that has been there before, plus a trio of guards who take plenty of 3s. Auburn can score and defend, but experience rules in March.

No. 7 seed Texas to the Final Four (1 vote)

By Scott Chasen, assistant sports editor

We end with my upset pick, and it’s certainly a bold (crazy?) one considering how Texas under-performed this season. The Longhorns will face a First Four winner (Colorado State), and those teams tend to go on runs. A very good Tennessee team awaits the winner, and Purdue, Creighton, Gonzaga and a banged up Kansas team are also in the Midwest Regional.

Here’s my take: I don’t see a team Texas can’t beat. Max Abmas has been here before (a phrase you hear often in March), and Tyrese Hunter was a transfer guard who everyone wanted. Texas has the athletes and the talent, and road blowouts to Houston, Kansas and Marquette aside, that schedule had a lot of close losses and coin-flip games.

It’s March. Give me the talent. Give me a team that should have something to play for. And give me a team that fell one round short of reaching the Final Four last year to finish the job (and maybe save Rodney Terry’s, too).