Kansas Q&A: NCAA Tournament seeding, KU basketball recruiting & Kevin McCullar injury

The Kansas men’s basketball team has an opportunity to move up (or down) significantly in NCAA Tournament seeding projections depending on the results of its games in the next few days.

KU plays No. 1 Houston on Saturday, and a win vs. the Cougars would certainly help KU’s resume — the Jayhawks are 7-6 in Quad 1 games.

Still, KU hasn’t had a win Q1 win since beating Texas on Feb. 24.

Then comes the all-important Big 12 Tournament. The Jayhawks will likely begin play on Wednesday, pending Saturday’s results. How the teams around Kansas in the standings do this weekend will help determine Kansas’ seed for the Big 12 Tournament — Texas Tech is tied with KU for the fourth spot in the conference.

Meanwhile, BYU is a game below KU, and Baylor is right above the Jayhawks in the conference.

Right now, ESPN and CBS are projecting the Jayhawks as the No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

ESPN has KU in the East Regional (Boston) facing High Point in Memphis for the first round. CBS projects Kansas in the East Region matched up with Eastern Washington in Omaha for the first round.

Here’s why Kansas coach Bill Self thinks winning on Saturday is important for Kansas.

“As far as preparation for the NCAA Tournament and those things, winning on the road is important. It’s more important for your resume and seeding,” Self said.

Now it’s time for another Kansas Jayhawks mailbag. Thanks for the questions!

Any news on the recruitment front for the class of 2024, or is it set at Philon, Passmore and Bidunga? — @JonnyOrlansky

Keep an eye out for Montverde small forward Liam McNeeley, who decommitted from Indiana on Thursday.

He was ranked No. 11 in the Class of 2024 for ESPN and initially chose the Hoosiers over KU in October. He’s a sharpshooting forward who averaged 16.8 points and 5.1 rebounds on the Nike EYBL circuit last spring and summer and even shot 37.5% from 3-point range.

Multiple reports — including from Rivals — suggest the Jayhawks are contenders for McNeeley again. It would be a significant move if KU could add him to their Class of 2024 recruits, as he’s considered one of the best shooters in the class.

Here’s what The Athletic’s NBA Draft writer Sam Vecenie had to say about McNeeley’s potential.

“He is seen as a potential one-and-done in the 2025 NBA Draft because of his long-distance marksmanship,” Vecenie said.

In your opinion, who’s the most important player on our roster? – @daytona_jr

I think it’s Kevin McCullar. He’s KU’s best two-way player and maybe the only person on the roster who can create his shot when needed, a trait that Kansas desperately needs.

When he missed four games recently due to a bone bruise in his knee, the Jayhawks went 2-2 and looked all out of sorts.

That said, by most numbers and metrics, the answer is KU star big man Hunter Dickinson. But I have a couple problems with that.

First, the numbers don’t showcase how Kansas’ defense is built around him, emphasizing his strengths and minimizing his weaknesses. You could argue that when Kansas lost games due to opponents’ excellent 3-point shooting, those schemes allowed better quality shots from deep than at the rim. And opponents cashed in.

Also, Dickinson’s go-to moves in late-game situations have become somewhat predictable. Most of the time, he’s backing somebody down in the post or scoring at the rim. This predictability makes it easier for teams to pack the paint and defend him, while McCullar has a repertoire of options from mid-range shots to driving to the rim or even taking 3-pointers. It keeps the defense more off-balance.

Both players are crucially important to KU’s success and likely All-Americans, but I tend to believe McCullar is the more important player. He does things others can’t and his weaknesses don’t hinder the team.

Do you see Coach Self making any rotation changes/minute restrictions if KU has to play on Wednesday in the Big 12 tournament? — @TheJayhawk4ever

There’s a very real possibility that McCullar either sits out a game or plays limited minutes early in the tournament. I don’t think it’s really feasible to expect McCullar to potentially play four games in four nights, especially with the nature of his injury.

I asked Self whether McCullar would miss time in the Big 12 Tournament on Thursday.

“The answer will be, ‘I don’t know,’’’ Self said. “That’s something I certainly have thought about, but we’re too soon to talk about it. We’ll see how he does this weekend. We’ll see how he feels next week. But doing well in the Big 12 tournament isn’t as important as being healthy the next week (in the NCAAs). We’ll try to figure it out. I’m going to wait and get through this week before we actually try to get a game plan together on that.”

If McCullar misses time or plays limited minutes, I expect Nick Timberlake to get extended minutes, as he’s typically started when McCullar has missed games.

I also think Self will lessen the usage of Elmarko Jackson and Jamari McDowell off the bench as he prepares to shorten the rotation in the NCAA Tournament.

Do you see this year’s team having a higher ceiling than the 4-seed team in 2018-19? — @joeyygrimes

That’s a great question. That Jayhawks team lost to Auburn in the Round of 32. But when I look at the overall metrics, I think this KU team has a higher ceiling.

That team wasn’t elite on either side of the ball — neither the offense nor defense ranked top-10 in adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom.

Meanwhile, this KU team at least ranks No. 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency — basically, the amount of points given up per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent.

The current KU team is also No. 1 in the nation in assist rate, a testament to how good the offense can sometimes be. The Jayhawks’ issue on the offensive end essentially boils down to KU’s lack of 3-point shot-taking (and making). KU ranks No. 339 in 3-point rate — the lowest ever in the Self era.

Still, the 2018-19 Kansas team didn’t take or make many 3-pointers either — Kansas ranked No. 275 in 3-point rate.

There are many similarities between both teams, but the overall defensive ceiling of this team gives the edge to the current squad.

Is the 2024 football season playoff or bust? — @jdavis0202

Boy, I see we’ve arrived at this level of optimism about Kansas football next season.

Listen, I’m pretty optimistic about the program’s direction and current status, but before KU even dreams of a CFB Playoff berth, the Jayhawks need to make it to the Big 12 title game first.

It would be crazy to think about the CFB Playoff when KU hasn’t even won a conference title since 1968.

The most significant roadblocks for the Jayhawks to their Big 12 title dreams are ultimately Jalon Daniels’ health and schools like K-State, Arizona, Utah and Oklahoma State, which will all challenge Kansas for a Big 12 title.

Right now, the focus should be on making the Big 12 Championship Game. After that, we can start talking about the playoff.