JPMorgan posts big Q4 earnings beat, releases credit reserves amid 'economic uncertainty'
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) kicked off the fourth-quarter earnings season for big banks on Friday, delivering results that blew away analysts’ expectations even as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to exert significant headwinds on the global economy.
Here were the key figures versus expectations for the fourth quarter, according to analysts polled by Bloomberg.
Revenue (adjusted): $29.2 billion vs. $28.65 billion expected
Earnings per share (adjusted): $3.79 vs. $2.62 per share expected
The largest U.S. bank by assets delivered net income of $12.1 billion, or $3.79 per share, up 42% from a year ago. Those results included a $2.9 billion of credit reserve releases, resulting in a 72 cent increase in earnings per share, and boosted by surges in markets revenue and investment banking fees.
The bank reported a net benefit of $1.89 billion in credit reserves, but maintains a reserve topping $30 billion — reflecting what the CEO Jamie Dimon called “significant near term uncertainty” as coronavirus cases surge worldwide.
Although the incipient vaccination rollout and prospects for a big-bang stimulus are helping the outlook, Dimon added that the reserves “will allow us to withstand an economic environment far worse than the current base forecast by most economists.”
Sharers of JPMorgan shed 2% in early trading, last changing hands near $138.
Dimon added that the firm holds $1.4 trillion of cash and marketable securities, which he pointed out is $450 billion more than what’s required. He noted that the firm’s earnings power and “healthy capital position” give the bank flexibility to pay dividends and do share repurchases.
A ‘cloudy’ outlook
Still, the near-term outlook continues to look cloudy, with real-time data showing the economy weakened as 2020 drew to a close. Retail sales registered an unexpected decline in December, while new jobless claims are hovering dangerously close to the 1 million mark.
The dampening effect of COVID-19 has forced banks to shutter a record number of U.S. branches, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, as nearly 3100 shut down amid openings of under 1000.
Still, JPMorgan Chase CFO Jennifer Piepszak said growth could “get back to 2019 levels in the second half of 2021, but that unemployment, while improving from where we are now, still above where we were pre-COVID, she said, in response to a question from Yahoo Finance.
Dimon told Yahoo Finance that there could “cloudy” quarters in the first half of 2021 — citing soaring small business closures, unemployment and COVID-19 infections. On Thursday, President-elect Joe Biden unveiled a nearly $2 trillion COVID-19 relief package, including new direct payments, and help for the jobless.
"And, hopefully, by some time this summer, you could have a very healthy economy,” Dimon said.
The next round of payments are “mostly to focus on helping those who desperately need help — which are people who are unemployed, small businesses, and some of the lower-income folks, etcetera and to bridge it to what will hopefully be a much stronger economy in the second half of this year,” he added.
The bank chief expects a better economy in the second half of 2021 with the vaccine rollout and fiscal support. He also pointed to savers and expectations for pent-up demand and “hopefully optimism by the fact that we are getting through this mess."
Looking further at the results, the firm’s fourth-quarter markets and securities services revenue rose 20% to $5.9 billion. Fixed-income trading revenues hit $4 billion, up 15% year-over-year, while equity markets revenue came in at $2 billion, up 30% from a year ago.
Banking revenue was $4.1 billion, up 16% from a year ago, with investment banking revenue jumping 37% to $2.5 billion on increasing fees.
Correction: JPMorgan’s reported a net benefit of $1.9 billion, included $2.9 billion of net reserve releases and $1.1 billion of net charge-offs, in the fourth quarter.
Julia La Roche is a correspondent for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter.
