Jamal Khashoggi's unlikely legacy could be an end to the catastrophe in Yemen
It is not unheard of for writers to become more influential in death than in life, and one of the enduring legacies of slain Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi may be helping to end the worst humanitarian crisis in the world in Yemen, where more than 16 million people are on the brink of starvation as a result of civil war. President Trump’s tepid response to his murder by the Saudi regime has also provoked the Republican-led Senate to rediscover its voice as a co-equal branch of government, voting unanimously Thursday to condemn the Saudi crown prince for the Khashoggi killing, and invoking its war powers to end U.S. complicity in the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen.
“Yesterday’s votes in the Senate were a very powerful statement that creates a whole new frame of reference in terms of U.S. policy in the Middle East,” Aaron David Miller, Middle East program director at the Wilson Center, said in an interview. With seven Republicans joining all Senate Democrats in the 56 to 41 vote on the Yemen resolution, a majority in the Senate is now directly challenging Trump’s Saudi policy, with a Democratic majority in the House in the next Congress likely to follow suit.
“We’re seeing a reassertion of congressional resolve to reclaim its war powers, and a fundamental rejection of the Trump administration decision to make Saudi Arabia the linchpin of U.S. strategy in the region,” said Miller. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s brutal campaign in Yemen and reckless attempts to isolate Qatar have only increased Iranian influence in the region, he argued, even as “MBS,” as the crown prince is known, increased repression at home and, according to the CIA’s assessment, ordered and closely monitored the murder of Khashoggi. “Nor have there been any signs that the Saudis will support [Trump adviser and son-in-law Jared] Kushner’s long-awaited plan for Arab-Israeli peace, and they haven’t done us any favors on oil prices recently. So I never bought that the Trump strategy for the Middle East was workable, and I still don’t.”
The instability in Yemen flowed from the Arab Spring uprisings and, as was the case in Syria, eventually fractured along the Middle East’s sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shiites. In late 2014, Iranian-backed Shiite rebels called Houthis overthrew the Yemeni government in the capital of Sanaa, provoking a Saudi-led military coalition of Sunni Arab states, supported by Washington, to intervene on behalf of the internationally recognized government. A proxy war ensued backed by the region’s major Sunni and Shiite powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, respectively.
Like the sectarian civil wars in Iraq and Syria, the fighting in Yemen has been extremely brutal, with civilian populations treated as expendable or outright targets. Saudi Arabia was heavily criticized for weaponizing food last year by imposing a “starvation blockade” on a port through which 70 percent of humanitarian aid flows, and Riyadh eventually backed off. Under the direction of MBS, however, the Saudi coalition has also been accused of indiscriminate bombing with scant concern for collateral damage and civilian casualties. That includes an especially horrific attack last August that hit a school bus, killing an estimated 40 children under the age of 11, as well as 11 adults. It was later reported that the bomb was sold to the Saudis by the United States, which had also offered targeting intelligence and mid-air refueling to Saudi warplanes.
The scorched-earth fighting in what was already an extremely poor nation created what the United Nations characterized this year as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. It has been exacerbated by a near total collapse of the Yemeni economy.
“We’ve recently reported that more than 16 million people in Yemen are not just going to bed hungry every day, but they are marching to the brink of starvation,” said David Beasley, executive director of the World Food Program, speaking Thursday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. “Children are dying at a rate of one every 10 or 11 minutes in what is a strictly man-made disaster, which is just heartbreaking. This war is a calamity, and it needs to come to an end.”
Improbably, the premeditated murder of Saudi dissident journalist and U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi has sparked such outrage on Capitol Hill, and pushback against the Trump administration’s complacent attitude towards Saudi recklessness, that the goal of an end to the conflict in Yemen may be in sight. Even as the Senate was voting Thursday, for instance, the warring sides in Yemen’s civil war announced a ceasefire and other confidence-building measures during U.N.-brokered peace talks in Sweden. Many experts believe the impending Senate vote and congressional ire over the Khashoggi murder inspired newfound flexibility by the Saudis.
“The agreement is a major step towards alleviating the humanitarian crisis and reaching a political solution,” Saudi ambassador to Washington, Khalid bin Salman, tweeted Thursday.
Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., a Marine Corps veteran and member of the Foreign Relations Committee, has been one of the strongest advocates on Capitol Hill for using U.S. leverage over Saudi Arabia to bring an end to the bloodshed in Yemen.
“The Saudis have used U.S. support to indiscriminately bomb civilians and use food as a weapon of war, and failure to utilize our leverage has resulted in a deepening crisis in Yemen, an increase in Iran’s influence, and the Saudi crown prince unfortunately left with the impression that he can get away with almost anything, including murder,” said Young, speaking Thursday at CSIS. Last month, the U.S. military stopped providing refueling to Saudi warplanes, he noted, and on Oct. 31 both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis publicly called for a blanket ceasefire in Yemen. “If the Saudis ignore that call for an end to airstrikes, then we have a problem,” Young said.
Earlier this week, the House Republican leaders moved to block any debate or vote on Yemen-related resolutions, but that roadblock is likely to disappear when a Democratic House majority assumes the gavel in January. This week’s votes suggest a majority in the Republican-led Senate and Democratic-led House will back cutting off all U.S. support for the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen.
“Setting aside politics, we will have a number of fresh faces coming into Congress next year, and new members will be looking to identify issues where they can make a significant difference,” said Young. “What better issue than solving the worst humanitarian crisis and national security threat in the world?”
Whether the venerable U.S.-Saudi alliance can survive intact with MBS at the de facto helm in Riyadh remains to be seen, given the blood so evident on his hands. Powerful voices on national security such as Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., insist that MBS has “got to go.” The United States has a dismal track record, however, of trying to designate preferred leaders in foreign nations, let alone ones with such byzantine succession machinations as the House of Saud.
With the Senate having rediscovered its voice on foreign policy, however, it seems certain that the relationship will be back on a more institutional foundation. That likely sounds a death knell for the unusual back-channel “bromance” between MBS and Jared Kushner. The foundation of the Trump administration’s entire Middle East strategy is thus shaking as a result of Thursday’s Senate vote.
That too is part Jamal Khashoggi’s legacy.
“The issue for the Saudis now is not only what happens next on Capitol Hill, but whether or not they can count on U.S. support for the next 10, 20 or 30 years. If they can’t, the Saudis are in trouble because they don’t have a plan B,” Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, said in an interview. “The U.S. Senate and powerful American politicians have just cast a vote of ‘no confidence’ in the Saudi leadership. That is a very big deal.”
James Kitfield is a senior fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress.
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