Security, Middle East
There is no doubt that the “maximum pressure” strategy is making life harder for the government of Tehran and the majority of Iranian people. Still, it is unlikely that the pressure will lead to a major policy shift.
The Iran Pressure Plan Will Fail
In early May, officials from Iran and the United States intensified their rhetoric and the two archenemies seemed to be on the course to engage in a military confrontation. The Trump administration decided not to renew the waivers it had previously granted to a few countries to import Iranian oil and Tehran responded by suspending some of its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)/nuclear deal. Furthermore, the Islamic Republic was accused of being behind mysterious attacks on four oil tankers and a drone strike on a Saudi oil pipeline. It was also accused of planning an attack on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria (according to the New York Times). The United States responded by deploying an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf and announced a plan to send more troops to the region.