Iran confrontation poses potential new risks for US troops

The Pentagon is bracing for potential new threats to American troops in the Middle East after Iran’s massive aerial assault on Israel early Sunday, as the Biden administration races to contain the blowback.

None of the 300-some drones or missiles launched posed a threat to American officials in the region, pointed out a senior administration official, who like others interviewed for this story was granted anonymity to speak candidly about a sensitive operation. But the size and scale of the U.S. response to an Iranian attack is far above anything seen previously in the decades-long standoff between Washington and Tehran, and both sides will be scrambling to learn lessons from the engagement.

The concern now for the Pentagon is any new risk the current tension poses to American service members in the region. Thousands of forces are stationed across the Middle East, including at vulnerable outposts in Iraq and Syria and aboard ships in the Red Sea. Additional troops are scheduled to arrive in the coming days for a dangerous mission to begin constructing a pier to help bring in aid to starving Gazans.

DOD officials said they did not immediately see any new threat to U.S. troops in the Middle East on Sunday, however the situation is dynamic — and a lot will depend on what Israel does next. Biden administration officials have been urging their Israeli counterparts to show restraint, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, looking to stay in power, may feel compelled to respond forcefully.

The senior administration official would not specifically address the threat to U.S. service members, but said: “Our forces remain postured to provide additional defensive support to protect U.S. forces in the region.”

Iran has long sought to push U.S. forces out of the Middle East, and has a history of seizing on regional tensions as an opportunity to attack American troops there, said Dana Stroul, who served until December as the Pentagon’s top official overseeing Middle East policy. In the months after Oct. 7, Iran-backed militants launched more than 170 attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, only stopping in February after a drone strike killed three U.S. soldiers and Biden ordered major retaliatory strikes.

Saturday’s strike was unique in that U.S. officials went to great lengths to message privately to Iran ahead of time that they had nothing to do with Israel’s deadly attack on Iran’s facility in Damascus. But generally, “Iran believes the United States has so significantly and strategically backed and enabled the IDF that it does not draw distinction and seeks to impose costs,” Stroul said.

“If Israel responds against Iran in a way that escalates the situation, U.S. forces will inevitably be included in Iran’s response,” she said. “The risk of miscalculation is very high right now.”

Another concern is that If Israel responds with a counter-strike and the crisis escalates, U.S. forces could be hit by accident — or Iran could decide the American troops are an easier target than Israel, said retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command.

“Iran is under the mistaken impression they're gonna reset deterrence with Israel,” McKenzie said. “My judgment is, Iran is making a significant mistake.”

The U.S. response was one of the largest defensive operations in memory, including the destroyers USS Arleigh Burke and Carney in the Mediterranean, F-15 fighters over Iraq and Syria, and an Army Patriot missile battery in Iraq all separately knocking down more than 80 drones and as many as seven ballistic missiles heading for Israel.

The defensive operation was even more successful than many anticipated.

“Our goal was to get as much as we could to limit damage. [We] certainly thought with such a massive attack more would get through,” said one senior DOD official who was not authorized to speak publicly. “Biggest surprise was how successful we were.”

But there will soon be even more U.S. troops in the region to worry about, as several U.S. Army ships are expected to arrive in the coming days to start construction on a floating pier to bring more humanitarian aid to Gaza.

The pier, which will be anchored to the beach by the Israel Defense Forces, will be vulnerable to attack by air or ground, raising concerns about the security of the operation.

The ships transporting and housing the troops will be stationed several miles off the Gaza coast, but the Pentagon is preparing for multiple threats, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said in an interview Friday, before Iran’s strikes.

“There's going to be a very robust, layered set of defenses geared towards interdicting any kind of maritime threat,” she said, adding, “we're thinking about fast boats driving up and trying to blow something up, or divers under the water.”

On land, Wormuth said, the threats include shoulder-launched missiles. “There are many different measures being put in place, and it'll be Navy, Army, Israeli Defense Forces, all working together — this has been looked at in extreme detail.”

Wormuth pointed to the October 2000 attack on the USS Cole, where al-Qaida terrorists in fast boats blew themselves up alongside the ship in the Persian Gulf, killing 17 sailors.

“The memory of the Cole is there so we're thinking about fast boats driving up and trying to blow something up, or divers under the water,” she said. “Obviously threats from the land in terms of people who might be shooting shoulder-launched missiles or something like that. Air threats. So there are many different measures being put in place. And it'll be Navy, Army, Israeli Defense Forces, all working together, but this has been looked at in extreme detail.”

CORRECTION: A previous version of this report misspelled the name of a destroyer. It is the USS Carney.