Iowa will caucus but Florida will matter, and it’s time for the paella pan in Tally

Today is Monday, Feb. 3, the official start of the presidential primary season as the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses happen tonight on the Midwestern tundra.

Will Florida matter? Although a winner will emerge, the nail-biter continues. After the four early primary states, followed by Super Tuesday (March 3) and Second Tuesday (March 10), Florida will hold its St. Patrick’s Day primary on March 17. Yes, half of the Democratic Party’s delegates will be delivered by that point but, just watch, Florida may still matter. In fact, Florida’s primary is already underway as mail-in voting starts Feb. 6.

Florida Democrats have been shifting away from the center, just like the GOP, and the primary may give us some clues as to where they’re landing. Remember, this is the party that chose Charlie Crist, a former Republican, to be its standard-bearer against then-Gov. Rick Scott in 2014 and then, with a wide-open field, selected progressive Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum to run a failed bid for governor against Republican Ron DeSantis in 2018.

Plus, as the NYT’s Nate Cohn explains, the Democratic primary calendar will lead to fewer big wins and more evenly distributed contests, which also diminishes the odds of an early winner.

Will Michael follow Rudy? As Florida Democrats go, so goes the nation? Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is counting on that, and perhaps some luck. He has been investing time and television in the Sunshine State. We haven’t seen the same from other Democrats, whose campaigns are counting on the early primaries, but they also don’t have Bloomberg’s billions. It’s worth noting that in 2008, another former New York mayor staked his hopes on Florida to help him break from the pack. Rudy Guilliani got trampled.

Groundhog Day? Meanwhile, brace yourself, somebody wants to start campaigning for 2024. Scott, now a U.S. Senator, is sending repeated signals he wants to be president. He won three campaigns on the strength of good television ads and appears to be ready to invest in the same playbook. Last week he launched an anti-Biden ad in Iowa, ostensibly to boost Donald Trump but practically to get his name into Hawkeye State truck-stop chatter.

No November vote on guns: One thing we won’t see on the 2020 ballot are some citizens initiatives that ran out of time to get the required number of signatures by the Feb. 1 deadline. Among them: the constitutional amendment to ban assault weapons. Voters this fall also won’t get to vote on an amendment that would allow recreational use of marijuana, which also failed to get enough signatures. Two initiatives voters will see is a proposal to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, and another to reaffirm the requirement that only citizens can vote.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING IN TALLAHASSEE

It’s Week 4 of the legislative session, featuring Miami-Dade County days Feb. 5 and 6 and the giant vat of paella served up to visitors in the plaza of the Florida Capitol. The House and Senate released their proposed spending plans late last week — about $1.4 billion apart. Both sides are inching closer to an agreement on teacher salaries, and while both chambers call for more money for state workers, the Senate suggests 3% across the board while the House would boost wages for only those making less than $50,000.

Meanwhile, things are playing out as we predicted. The Senate will take a final vote on its largely symbolic parental consent abortion bill on Thursday. The House is expected to take up an identical version, despite a feud unleashed within the House Democratic caucus, and the bill could land on the governor’s desk quickly. The measure requires a minor to receive notarized consent from a parent or guardian to receive abortion, a step beyond the current requirement for simple notification of a parent or guardian.

Death penalty debate dies: The death penalty curve ball delivered by the Florida Supreme Court — which ruled it “got it wrong” in 2014 when it said death sentence recommendations don’t need a unanimous jury — was subdued by Senate President Bill Galvano last week. He said there is going to be no attempt to change the current law, which requires a unanimous jury.

Sports betting speculation lives: Another curve ball emerged on gaming, but it looks like the perennial ditched pitch it has always been. House and Senate leaders say they are reviving talks to reach a deal with the governor that would allow organized sports betting and bring in new revenue from the Seminole Tribe.

But Galvano, who would love to leave office having resolved the years-long impasse, is not stoking false hopes. “It’s a valid exercise,’’ he said. “But we’re not prepared to roll anything out yet.” What’s more: New gaming revenues were not included in the Senate budget proposal rolled out late Thursday.

Closing the revolving door: After years of failed attempts to end the revolving door between public office and private lobbying, voters made it happen with the passage of Amendment 12 in 2018, imposing a six-year ban on elected officials returning to lobby their former colleagues. A bill to implement the amendment and put penalties behind the ethics rules is moving, quietly, through the Legislature.

WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT

Big salary, little oversight: The state’s largest domestic violence nonprofit, which escaped legislative scrutiny for years, is now getting some attention after a Miami Herald investigation. A House committee last week questioned the second in command at the Florida Coalition Against Domestic Violence, but she couldn’t tell them how the group’s salaries were set — including the $761,000 paid to the CEO — and other basic details about her job.

Taxpayer-financed discrimination? In another example that legislative oversight is selective oversight, the Orlando Sentinel has exposed how a taxpayer-funded program to give school vouchers to eligible students attending private schools has sent more than $129 million more than 150 private schools whose official policies discriminate against LGBTQ students.

The newspaper found that at least 14% of Florida’s nearly 147,000 scholarship students last year attended private schools “where homosexuality was condemned or, at a minimum, unwelcome” and where students whose parents are in same-sex marriages were refused admission.

The report got immediate response from two of the many corporations that finance the program in exchange for tax breaks. Wells Fargo and Fifth Third Bank announced they would stop donating to the program. The response from legislative leaders, like Miami’s Sen. Manny Diaz: Parents who don’t like discrimination can find schools that don’t do it.

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