What would an International Criminal Court arrest warrant mean for Israel’s Netanyahu?

The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor has filed a motion applying for arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defence minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes.

Chief prosecutor Karim Khan also called for arrest warrants for three Hamas leaders, including chief Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s military leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, and Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s political bureau.

The move from the ICC has caused fury among Israeli and Hamas politicians alike, with both sides incensed by the comparison to one another.

But if the arrest warrant for Mr Netanyahu is granted, it will mark the first time a Western-affiliated leader has faced one.

Speaking in English to address his foreign supporters directly, Mr Netanyahu responded to the motion by describing Mr Khan as one of the “great antisemites in modern times”, adding that he was “callously pouring gasoline on the fires of antisemitism that are raging around the world”.

Below, The Independent looks at what a warrant could mean for Mr Netanyahu, and why possible warrants for the three Hamas leaders are less controversial.

What happens if the ICC issues the warrant?

If the ICC approves Mr Khan’s application for an arrest warrant, Mr Netanyahu would, theoretically, be barred from travelling to any of the 124 signatories to the court.

That includes the United Kingdom, all major European countries and the likes of Canada and Australia.

If he sets foot in any of those countries, that nation is obliged to arrest Mr Netanyahu and hand him over to the ICC, where he would later face trial for alleged war crimes.

The most recent leader to be issued an arrest warrant was Russian president Vladimir Putin, who last March was reprimanded for the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children as part of his full-scale invasion. He has not travelled to any signatories to the ICC since and was forced to cancel a trip to South Africa last July.

A spokesperson for UK prime minister Rishi Sunak described the ICC’s latest actions as “not helpful to reaching a pause in the fighting, getting hostages out or humanitarian aid in”, but they did not comment on whether or not they would comply with the warrant, saying they would not comment on “hypotheticals”.

They would have to argue that Mr Netanyahu had diplomatic immunity if they wanted to avoid arresting him.

Israel, China and Russia, as well as Israel’s staunchest ally, the US, however, are not signatories.

US president Joe Biden described the ICC’s decision as “outrageous”, while a group of Republican senators, typically more supportive of Israel, went one step further.

After rumours swirled that the ICC were seeking arrest warrants, the senators issued a direct, public statement to the court. “Target Israel and we will target you... you have been warned,” they said.

They could later move to pass a law to sanction ICC officials or ban them from the US.

In effect, if a warrant is issued, it may make it difficult for Mr Netanyahu, as well as Mr Gallant, to travel freely to nations that have criticised Israel’s conduct in Gaza. France’s Foreign Ministry, for example, said it “supports the International Criminal Court, its independence and the fight against impunity in all situations”.

Equally, it appears that the move would bring Israel’s closest allies, like the US, even closer, with the ICC being the one potentially facing fallout.

What do possible warrants mean for the Hamas leaders?

After Mr Khan issued the applications for arrest, Hamas demanded the withdrawal of the allegations against its leaders, claiming the ICC’s prosecutor was “equating the victim with the executioner”.

But the warrants affect the three leaders differently from Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant.

The state of Palestine is a signatory to the ICC, which it is allowed to do because it has non-member observer status at the United Nations. It is on this basis that the ICC believes it has jurisdiction to potentially issue the warrants.

But Hamas, which runs Gaza and not the occupied West Bank, is a non-state actor already condemned by many of the other signatories to the ICC.

Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader based in Qatar, may have to think more closely about meetings with senior Arab leaders if the warrant is issued.

But the entire Gulf region, including Qatar, has not signed up to the Rome Statute that founded the ICC, so he will face fewer travel issues than Mr Netanyahu.

For Mr Sinwar and Mr al-Masri, who are both believed to be hiding in the Gaza Strip, Israel is actively seeking to kill them – and has thousands of soldiers looking for them in the enclave.

An arrest warrant would have little effect on their ability to travel.