An intermediate step towards NATO. What to expect from the July summit in Vilnius
There are no reasons for disappointment.
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On June 12, a meeting of the leaders of France, Germany, and Poland took place. As often happens with us on the eve of such summits, expectations arose that the prospects for Ukraine's membership in NATO and some other important issues would be decided at this meeting. The trilateral format of this meeting also intrigued many Ukrainian observers.
But there is nothing unusual about the format of this meeting. This is the so-called "Weimar Triangle," which was founded back in 1991 to develop cooperation between Poland, Germany, and France. The group exists mainly in the form of top-level meetings between the leaders and foreign ministers of these three countries. The meetings primarily discuss European policy issues, but also matters of international security.
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The main topic of this meeting was the question of Ukraine's prospects for NATO membership and security guarantees for Ukraine until our country becomes a member of NATO. NATO members are already seeking and preparing a coordinated decision on this issue, and this trilateral meeting was part of the preparatory work on this matter. The next platform is the meeting of NATO defense ministers, which will take place on Thursday, June 15. The discussion on this issue will continue until the NATO summit itself, and perhaps final decisions will be coordinated for adoption in Vilnius.
the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO will be resolved after the end of the current war
Therefore, there was no need to expect any sensational results from the Weimar Triangle meeting. The leaders of France, Germany, and Poland once again expressed their support for Ukraine but avoided specifics regarding prospects for Ukraine's NATO membership and security guarantees. This may have caused a measure of disappointment for some, but there is no cause for this. At any rate, the process of coordinating decisions remains ongoing. Moreover, it should be understood that the key role in preparing this decision will be played by the United States. This process will very likely continue even after the NATO summit in Vilnius, and . The post-war format of security guarantees for Ukraine will finally be coordinated at that point, as well. In the meantime, there will probably be only intermediate and framework decisions.
A decision will most likely be made at the NATO summit this July to provide Ukraine with security guarantees before joining the North Atlantic Alliance. The scope and form of these guarantees are currently being agreed upon. It will essentially be an extension of the forms of support that Ukraine receives now on into the post-war period. NATO may also announce that it will assist Ukraine in restoring its own military-industrial complex and producing modern weapons, including long-range ones, using Western licenses. In regards to Ukraine's accession to NATO, Ukraine has the right to the same accession procedure to NATO as Finland and Sweden, but the decision will be made after the war ends. Ukraine may be offered some special (exclusive) agreement on cooperation with NATO, but as an intermediate stage rather than as an alternative to membership.
The text published with author’s permission.
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