Inside the minds of two NFL evaluators who make case for Justin Herbert over Tagovailoa

A six-pack of Miami Dolphins notes as we close in on this week’s NFL Draft:

▪ The belief here, as it has always been, is that Miami should take Tua Tagovailoa if he’s there at 5 and keep their fingers and toes crossed that he stays healthy.

But let’s be clear: Former Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum, now an ESPN commentator, is far from the only person on Earth advocating Herbert over Tua.

NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said he polled NFL executives and asked which of the two quarterbacks will be the second QB selected behind Joe Burrow. He said seven indicated Herbert would be, and five said Tua.

And two veteran personnel evaluators that I respect -- a longtime veteran scout for an NFC team and a longtime personnel executive for both AFC and NFC teams - insisted to me that selecting Herbert over Tagovailoa cannot only be justified but is the right move.

Why?

“Tua has had so many injuries, and it would be hard for me to draft a player with that injury history that high in the draft,” the scout said. “And think about it: He’s going to be playing against better players than he did in college. He’ll be playing a longer season. I wouldn’t take that risk.

“Herbert is going to be a good NFL starter. He has vision. He has arm strength. He’s very intelligent. He comes from a structured passing program; we both know Mario Cristobal likes to run and be conservative. He’s going to be better away from that system.”

The longtime personal executive said: “With the way Tua is built and the history of injuries, he’s not worth the risk. And I know people don’t want to hear this, but the talent around him at Alabama was so much better than most of the teams they played that you can’t overlook that. It made his [performance] better than it would have been otherwise. Herbert has the qualities you want - the big arm, athletic, can run. Not that Tua doesn’t, but he’s too big a risk.”

Former NFL coach Steve Mariucci, now an NFL Network analyst, said recently that he has raised Herbert to Tua’s tier not only because of Tua’s injury history but because of Herbert’s physical tools and brain.

According to NFL.com’s Albert Breer, Herbert had a 39 on the Wonderlic test at the Combine, compared with a 19 for Tagovailoa (not that I would use that to influence the pick).

So for all of the public support for Tua, there are NFL evaluators who can justify Herbert instead, even though - as ESPN’s Louis Riddick said - there’s a significant gap between the quality of their tape, with Tua clearly better.

For what it’s worth, one neutral NFL person who has been in touch with the Dolphins front office told me this week that he would be very surprised if the Dolphins select Herbert from what he was told. He said he was told Tua is the preference, with Jordan Love still in play. Again, for what it’s worth.

To be clear: We’re simply passing that along; we’re not reporting that Miami definitely will pass on Herbert or that Tua will be the pick.

▪ So what about Love?

“I was unimpressed with the tape last season,” the scout told me. “Indecisive. I don’t think he had very good vision. He couldn’t pull himself out of bad starts. He didn’t even look like he wanted to play at times. I wouldn’t take him in the first round.”

But, as ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky said, he makes more “wow” throws than any quarterback in the draft after Joe Burrow. And the talent is tempting.

▪ The player mocked to Miami at No. 18 by Todd McShay - Alabama safety Xavier McKinney - doesn’t belong that high, the scout said.

“He’s not as good as Minkah Fitzpatrick,” the scout said. “He can cover tight ends and running backs, but I don’t see him playing deep. He was a good tackler entering last season and then started missing tackles. I don’t see first-round talent. I gave him a third-round grade.”

The personnel executive said he loves Minnesota safety Antoine Winfield Jr., from both the tape and his interview with him.

“This kid is a whiz,” the executive said. “If you use him at different spots, he can handle all of it mentally. He can be a safety, a nickel [cornerback]. He has coverage skills. The way he ran at the Combine (4.41) moved him up. He could go in the first round, definitely won’t last past the second.”

Kiper has Miami taking Winfield at 26 - and he, McKinney, California’s Ashtyn Davis, Southern Illinois’ Jeremy Chinn and LSU’s Grant Delpit would all make sense on the second day.

“Teams are saying they like this next wave of safeties that will be there, “NFL Net’s Daniel Jeremiah said. “Delpit, Chinn, Winfield, Kyle Dugger, Ashtyn Davis -players teams like. That run could come in the second round.”

Bottom line: The Dolphins need a player from this draft who can emerge as their fifth defensive back in nickel situations, joining Xavien Howard, Byron Jones, Eric Rowe and Bobby McCain. Or, at the very least, a fifth who can battle Nik Needham, Adrian Colbert and Jamal Perry (formerly Jomal Wiltz) for that role.

▪ When listening to what former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer says about Tua, everyone should keep in mind his bias as Tua’s personal coach. But he did make some valid points in an interview with ESPN’s Suzy Kolber.

“He’s got an incredible ability to connect with people,” Dilfer said. “Tua has been coached as well as anyone has been coached [coming out of college, with former Alabama offensive coordinators] Lane Kiffin [who recruited Tua to Alabama but didn’t coach him], Brian Dabol, Mike Locksley, Steve Sarkisian. All under the umbrella of Nick Saban, one of the great coaches of all time.”

Both points have merit. Tua’s engaging, affable personality resonated during my one-on-one conversation with him in January.

Dilfer, incidentally, said Tagovailoa has spent 2 ½ hours daily on on-field work, then done a long daily classroom session with Dilfer and former NFL coach Ken Whisenhunt.

“He moves as well or better as before he got hurt,” Dilfer said. “He’s stronger, he’s leaner. I can’t predict how long he’s going to play…. [But] whoever gets him is getting someone special; they’re getting someone who has magic in them.”

▪ The aforementioned longtime personnel executive with whom we spoke said he liked Houston left tackle Josh Jones but he’s not sure if he will be ready to start as a rookie.

“He needs more strength and power,” the executive said. “For you guys, I would see him more at 26 than 18. He’s a good kid, very bright, was bright on the board.”

That executive said he will be shocked if Georgia left tackle Andrew Thomas is available at 18. “He’s going to be a starter for day one,” the executive said. “Great player, great on the board, really, really bright.”

The Dolphins need a starting left tackle more than anything on the roster, because we’re told they don’t want to be in a position where Julien Davenport needs to start.

▪ The aforementioned executive said Marlon Davidson - an Auburn defensive linemen that Brian Flores has spent a lot of time with - impressed him in a meeting.

“Sharp kid and can play anywhere in a 3-4 front or end in a 4-3.”

He’s certainly an option for Miami on day two, maybe even at 26 on day one.

Jeremiah noted that Davidson “got up to 300 pounds at his Pro Day and was embracing playing inside but there are teams that would like him to go back to what he played at, 285, and go back to play on the end.”

In sifting through the edge players who are defensive ends, I would suspect this Dolphins regime leans toward strong run defenders such as Davidson. LSU’s K’Lavon Chaisson and Penn State’s Yetur Gross Matos might not be strong enough against the run.

BONUS THINGS

The Dolphins released defensive end Jonathan Ledbetter with a non-football injury designation; Ledbetter’s camp declined to say how Ledbetter was injured. Undrafted out of Georgia, he played in only one game last season (a start in the season opener against Baltimore) before going on injured reserve with an ankle injury. Miami’s roster now stands at 71; teams cannot have more than 70 players at one time during the offseason...

Green Bay claimed two players who were released by Miami on Saturday: defensive tackle and former UM standout Gerald Willis and defensive end Jamal Davis...

ESPN’s Adam Schefter, this afternoon, on the Dolphins at No. 5: “Are they going to go for Tua?.. Are they going to pull the upset and go with Jordan Love? We’ve talked about Justin Herbert to the Dolphins last week. I’m not hearing a lot of that this week.”

Here’s my Tuesday piece examining the Dolphins’ options with their third third-round pick, with the pros and cons of each.

Here’s my Tuesday piece previewing the unprecedented ESPN/NFL Network draft simulcast and the ABC broadcast.