Inside the European attempt to reassure Biden before Palestinian statehood decision

The White House wasn’t happy when Spain, Norway and Ireland announced they were recognizing a Palestinian state on Wednesday. But it didn't come as a surprise.

In the days leading up to the announcement, some European officials had discussions with the Biden administration to avoid ruffling the White House’s feathers, according to American and Irish officials. While President Joe Biden has long supported a two-state solution, he believes the best way to do it is through direct diplomacy between Israelis and Palestinians.

As a result, the rollout was relatively non-combative. In the private discussions, Biden administration officials said that while they disagree with the move, they also “understand why we’re taking this step now, and they do seem to have accepted it as an inevitable development,” a senior Irish official said.

“There was no real pushback,” said the official, who, like others, was granted anonymity to detail private conversations.

The back-and-forth in the leadup to the announcements shows the extent to which American allies across the globe are attempting to balance their political interests at home with their desire to avoid further destabilizing the Middle East — all while managing their relationship with the United States, one of Israel’s staunchest allies.

And as the war drags on, such discussions will likely become increasingly critical to keep tensions from boiling over — and preserve long-standing relationships as Israel’s war in Gaza drags on.

A U.S. official familiar with the discussions stressed that Washington had made clear to the three countries — Spain and Ireland, in particular, given their more public approach — that recognizing a Palestinian state would not be useful.

Still, the administration believes — or at least hopes — that the move by Spain, Norway and Ireland will not significantly raise the global tensions over the war in Gaza.

“We would consider this an unavoidable reality of Spain and Ireland’s politics, and Norway has special reasons because of [the Oslo accords],” said the official, granted anonymity to speak candidly. The accords were a set of agreements in 1993 between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization that established a peace process for a two-state solution, which ultimately faltered.

Dublin was determined to take this step without damaging its typically strong relations with U.S. politicians — particularly Biden’s White House.

Consequently, Irish Department of Foreign Affairs diplomats ensured that their U.S. counterparts in the State Department were speedily briefed on every conversation the Irish had with like-minded European governments — Belgium, Malta, Norway, Slovenia and above all Spain — as they pursued a joint plan to recognize Palestinian statehood, the official said.

This included face-to-face discussions with senior National Security Council officials at the White House in March as part of St. Patrick’s Day-related diplomacy; multiple phone calls between Irish Foreign Minister Micheál Martin, who led the Irish initiative, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken; and final calls to Washington following the Irish Cabinet’s formal signoff on its decision Tuesday night.

“We couldn’t have been clearer in spelling out our intentions weeks, months in advance to make sure there were no surprises or needless suspicions raised in Washington,” said the official, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

The conversations with the U.S. also played into Ireland’s messaging on the announcement, the official said.

In his statement, Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris stressed that Ireland hoped to see resumed diplomacy between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank — and did not want to throw a diplomatic lifeline to the militant group.

The Biden administration was worried that the recognition could strengthen the Hamas militant group battling Israel in Gaza, “so we were keen today to emphasize in our messaging that Ireland is no friend to Hamas,” the official said.

U.S. officials are still expressing their displeasure publicly.

The Biden administration “believes a Palestinian state should be realized through direct negotiations between the parties, not through unilateral recognition,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement.

Asked about Israel’s growing diplomatic isolation on Wednesday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said, “That is of concern to us because we do not believe that that contributes to Israel's long-term security or vitality.”

But behind the scenes, officials downplayed the importance of the announcements.

Given all of the drama involving the Middle East this week, including the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s decision to seek arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders, the three countries’ efforts may not have much impact, the U.S. official argued.

“They tried to make enough of a group so that it would make a splash, but in our view, it’s more like a ripple,” the official added.

The U.S. also may be seeing the recognition of Palestine by these countries as a pressure point with Israel. Sullivan said U.S. officials had told Israel that a “strategic approach to defeating Hamas” and pursuing regional integration would help Israel revitalize those relationships. In recent weeks, U.S. officials have publicly criticized Israel’s military strategy in Gaza.

The move by the three countries could bolster Palestinians’ international recognition if other European countries sympathetic to their cause follow suit. Of the 193 United Nations member countries, 142 already recognize a Palestinian state, according to Palestinian officials.

The effects of the recognition will be “cumulative and incremental and over time, but it does tell us that the United States is increasingly isolated,” said Michael Wahid Hanna, U.S. Program Director at the International Crisis Group think tank.

One of America’s closest allies — France — has said it would consider recognizing Palestinian statehood if a two-state solution stalls due to Israeli opposition.

On Wednesday, however, French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné said Paris “does not consider that the conditions have yet been met for this decision to have a real impact on this process.”

Paris has been drafting a U.N. Security Council resolution on the two-state solution issue that it plans to put up for discussion over the summer.

In response to the actions by Spain, Norway and Ireland, Israel decried the decisions and recalled its ambassadors from the three European countries.