Indian monsoon falters in key month for farmers

By Rajendra Jadhav MUMBAI (Reuters) - After drenching India with above-average rains in June, the monsoon has weakened in what is typically the wettest and most crucial month for millions of farmers growing oilseeds, rice, cotton and pulses. Weather forecasters said the monsoon, critical for about half the farmland that lacks irrigation facilities, has hit a dry spell and rains could be sparse in at least the first half of July. The official forecast remains that India could suffer its first drought since 2009 because of the emergence of an El Nino weather pattern. "If the current dry spell continues for another week, then there will be an adverse impact on yields," said Harish Galipelli, head of commodities and currencies at Inditrade Derivatives and Commodities. "In some areas, crop will wilt and farmers will be forced to cultivate them again." The monsoon delivered 28 percent more rain than normal from the start of the season to June 25, accelerating sowing of summer crops. But it has weakened since last Thursday, especially in central, northwestern and southern India, reducing the surplus to 16 percent. A drop in yields could stoke food inflation and force the world's biggest importer of edible oils and pulses to increase overseas purchases and limit exports of rice and cotton. "Poor rainfall in July, with cloudy weather, can increase infestation of pest and diseases," said Amit Magre, a director of Bajrang Pulses and Agro Products in western India. "Higher temperatures could also hinder crop growth." Good rainfall this year is key to boosting a rural economy hit by delayed and lower rains last year, as well as keeping a lid on food inflation and giving India's central bank more scope to cut lending rates. Though agriculture accounts for about 15 percent of India's $2 trillion economy, three fifths of its 1.25 billion people depend on it for their livelihood. Vilas Shinde, a farmer from Aurangabad district in Maharashtra, was rejoicing a fortnight ago as ample rains had allowed him cultivate cotton quickly, but his crop is now starting to show signs of stress. "If rainfall fails next week, then my investment in seeds and fertilisers will be washed out," he said. Some farmers have drawn comfort from private forecaster Skymet's prediction of a good monsoon because of a phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole, which could counter El Nino. "We think July is going to be normal, albeit it is going to start on a weak note," Skymet Chief Executive Jatin Singh wrote on his website on Wednesday. But he agreed with the India Meteorological Department that there is a risk of prolonged dry weather in the southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, as well as the Marathwada region of Maharashtra. (Editing by Krishna N. Das and David Goodman)