Incumbents are favored in lackluster election cycle

May 12—1/2

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Trish La Chica and Ken Inouye

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Scott Saiki and Kim Coco Iwamoto

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In an unusually quiet election year, there will be no race for Hawaii governor and no serious challengers to either Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi or Honolulu Prosecutor Steve Alm.

Hawaii Republican and Democratic Party primary elections often provide the most drama in a state dominated by Democrats. But this year only a couple of primary races scheduled for Aug. 10 are generating interest outside their district boundaries — notably a rematch between House Speaker Scott Saiki and Kim Coco Iwamoto to represent Ala Moana-Kakaako-­Downtown.

Saiki beat Iwamoto by only 161 votes in the 2022 Democratic primary — with 2,680 votes compared to 2,519 for Iwamoto.

But there's much more at stake in the Democratic Party primary than who represents the House district that includes newcomers and transient owners of second homes in Hawaii, where campaigning door to door in condominium high rises remains harder than in other Oahu neighborhoods.

An Iwamoto win over Saiki in the primary also would transform leadership of the House following a generally successful legislative session that just ended with record tax relief for everyone, among other legislative accomplishments that Saiki and other incumbents are likely to campaign on over the next several weeks.

"He's a tough guy to beat but she's formidable," said political analyst Neal Milner. "That race has gotten closer and closer, and she's not giving up. That could be a close one and could throw the speakership into a free-for-all."

The other House primary race generating buzz pits state Rep. Trish La Chica, (D, Waipio-Mililani), against political newcomer Ken Inouye, the son of the late U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye.

La Chica, the 37-year-old mother of a 7-year-old son and 4-year-old daughter, represents younger working families in Central Oahu and serves as vice chair of the House Education Committee.

Inouye's campaign will test the reach of his father's name and his political disciples who are backing Ken Inouye.

But Inouye — the 59-year-old assistant to the vice chancellor at the University of Hawaii-West Oahu — insists that he's working hard on his own to meet door to door with voters and does not bring up his father.

Instead, he's typically asked if he's related to any number of other Hawaii Inouyes.

Two weeks ago, when Dan Inouye's name did come up five minutes into a conversation, Ken Inouye said a resident said, "'Whoa, why didn't you lead with that?' And I said, 'I'm the candidate. How can I better serve you?'"

Inouye, the father of a 14-year-old daughter about to enroll as a freshman at Mililani High School, said the worries of people in Central Oahu are the same as his.

"It's the cost of living," he said. "The flight from the state is a huge concern for people. It's a huge concern for me. One of my big concerns is what kind of world are we teeing up for my daughter and her classmates and for our kupuna who are retired or just about to retire? It's on everyone's minds.

"I've knocked on thousands of doors at this point, and people are just really grateful that you are there and you are listening to them," Inouye said. "Everyone who opens the door and looks at me eye to eye is just glad that someone's listening, and they're glad to be talking to someone who's engaged. It's really the only way to really get a handle of what's on people minds, and it's my favorite thing about the campaign."

As vice chair of the House Education Committee last session, La Chica said she was able to "focus on a lot of issues that are important to our students, our parents, our educators and all the things that are important to me as a mom with two school-age kids. ... Like many others, we're a working family affected by the day-to-day issues that impact our community. I'm working to make sure our kids have a better future."

The incumbents

Colin Moore — who teaches public policy at the University of Hawaii and serves as an associate professor at the University of Hawaii Economic Resource Organization — could not recall the last time there was no notable candidate challenging an incumbent Honolulu mayor, let alone Honolulu prosecutor at the same time.

"It's going to be a very quiet (election) season locally," Moore said. "There's a sense among the political class that Blangiardi can't be beat, and I think there's truth to that, although I don't think it's a great thing for democracy. There haven't been any big problems during his administration that would really hurt him."

Unlike his predecessors who were dragged down by the city's rail project, Blangiardi came up with a plan to shorten the route and get the project running last year at a cost the city could afford — while restoring the city's fractured relationship with the Federal Transit Administration, Moore said.

He called Blangiardi "a very strong communicator" who has worked to address entrenched problems with the city's Department of Planning and Permitting that frustrated builders, property owners and the general public.

Milner said Alm has name recognition and "he's not controversial," although he did organize the successful opposition during the legislative session to both legalizing recreational marijuana for adults and decriminalizing marijuana possession.

Alm also was out front in efforts to combat crime in Waikiki and showed compassion as a judge with the state's drug court "while he looks tough," Milner said. "He has the look of an old high school football coach."

By far, the marquee race this year will be the Nov. 5 rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the general election.

But with Hawaii likely to turn out again for Biden, the presidential race appears unlikely to change Hawaii's historic voter apathy.

Three of Hawaii's four Congressional delegates are up for reelection but none faces a heavyweight challenge, Moore said.

As a result, he said, an expected low voter turnout likely will favor incumbents seeking reelection.

They include Hawaii County Mayor Mitch Roth; five of nine Honolulu City Council members; 12 of the 25 state senators; and all 51 House seats — but at least one state senator and three state representatives are not running for reelection.

Tamara McKay, chair of the Hawaii Republican Party, hopes to convince Republicans to run for nonpartisan races in Honolulu and Hawaii County.

"It's a good way to build relationships and, maybe, further down the road go for the larger seats," she said.

But Republican victories even in nonpartisan races may prove difficult in a lackluster election year.

Because with overall low voter turnout, Milner said, "When in doubt, the incumbent has a big advantage."