Imran Khan Popularity Soars Ahead of Vote, Pakistan Survey Shows

(Bloomberg) -- A majority of Pakistanis blame a coalition government for the soaring inflation in a country that’s struggling to shore up finances and avoid a default while support for former premier Imran Khan soared ahead of elections.

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An opinion poll published by Gallup this week found that 62% of the 2,000 respondents blamed the Pakistan Democratic Movement that makes up government for the economic turmoil and inflation coming up to a six-decade high. Khan’s approval ratings in contrast jumped to 61% in February from 36% in January last year, polling data showed.

The PDM alliance, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, had ousted Khan in April last year through a no-confidence vote, pushing the narrative that the former cricket captain had mismanaged the economy.

Shehbaz Sharif and his government have since made tough decisions to raise energy prices and taxes to revive a loan program with the International Monetary Fund. He has seen his popularity drop to 32% in February from 51% in January 2022.

“Imran Khan’s popularity rests on strong fundamentals of being a charismatic leader, giving slogans that resonate with the public while there is a vacuum in Pakistani politics,”said Bilal Gilani, Executive Director at Gallup Pakistan.

“The real news is the major dent in the PML-N leaders’ ratings, which have seen an almost 20% decline in their popularity. The IMF decisions have precipitated the decline but the reasons were deeper and long term,” he added.

The economy is in dire straits with almost one in five Pakistanis reporting they have either lost their jobs or know someone from their households who is out of work, according to the survey carried out between Feb. 1 and 20.

Gilani said the government’s popularity declined due to a changing voter base with the 18-30 age group now making up almost 45% of the total. This group tends to associate Shehbaz Sharif and his elder brother, three-time premier Nawaz Sharif, with corruption and have struggled to relate with party’s infrastructure development narrative.

Nawaz Sharif, living in self-exile in London, has seen his support drop to 36% from 55%. He is weighing a return to Pakistan to boost the party’s prospects for the general elections slated for later this year.

Pakistan is scheduled to hold polls in two of the four provinces next month after Khan’s party leaders dissolved the legislatures. These elections will signal the public mood ahead of the national vote that will be held less than sixty days after the government term ends in August.

Khan will begin campaigning for the provincial polls on Tuesday with a protest rally. He has been pushing for early general elections but Shehbaz Sharif has said he wants to see through the IMF program and the government term.

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