Ignore the polling panic. Why I'm confident Gen Z will elect Joe Biden again.

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

It is often said that elections are determined by the hungriest constituency. Without the historic turnout of Black voters in 2008 and 2012, President Barack Obama could not have been elected and reelected president. Without the enthusiasm of women in 2016, Hillary Clinton likely would not have clinched the Democratic nomination.

In 2024, it will be the hungriest constituency that will, once again, be what makes or breaks President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects. This time around, though, the hungriest constituency is young voters – who will account for the largest, most diverse voting cohort of any age group.

Many are quick to point to the flurry of polls in recent months as evidence that Biden’s ability to capture young voters in 2024 is dwindling. A New York Times poll from December found young people supporting former President Donald Trump more than him by 6 points. A poll by USA TODAY, released just after the new year, found a similar pattern with young voters supporting Trump over Biden by 4 points.

While it is true that Biden has his share of struggles with young voters, it is premature to jump to conclusions based on a handful of polls.

President Joe Biden poses for a selfie in Charleston, S.C., on Jan. 8, 2024.
President Joe Biden poses for a selfie in Charleston, S.C., on Jan. 8, 2024.

For one, most polls conducted by news outlets rely on outdated methods of reaching young voters. Consider the USA TODAY poll finding young voters supporting Trump more than Biden: The only method used to contact young voters was by phone. Few young people use the phone for friends and family – not to mention when that involves picking up a random, unlisted number.

What’s more, the polls have been wrong repeatedly, and there are no indications that they will be right this time around, either.

That is why Democrats must concentrate their energy and time not on what a few polls suggest about the state of the presidential race nearly 10 months from Election Day, but instead on what truly matters. That is, not taking young voters for granted and doing everything possible to reach and turn out young people.

Democrats know how to move young voters

Luckily, Democrats already know what works. The challenge now, though, is being even more aggressive and bold in mobilizing one of the hungriest, most important voting groups this year.

If Democrats do it right, there is no doubt in my mind – as a young person dedicated to turning out my generation to vote – that my peers and I will propel Joe Biden back to the White House in November.

Republicans aren't talking to Gen Z. If they were, GOP candidates would be tackling these issues.

Here is how that can happen:

By far the biggest issue that young people convey to me is that they are unaware of what President Biden has accomplished during his time in office. They don’t know, for example, that he has made strides around nearly every issue young people care about – from climate change to student loan forgiveness to gun violence.

Unlike what former White House adviser Kellyanne Conway and former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker have suggested Republican candidates do, however, simply flooding the zone with as much information as possible will not cut it with young voters.

Opinion alerts: Get columns from your favorite columnists + expert analysis on top issues, delivered straight to your device through the USA TODAY app. Don't have the app? Download it for free from your app store.

There must be more to Biden’s social media engagement than simply listing all of his accomplishments – as many and as historic as they are – and expecting it to excite young voters. Instead, the president should do more of what his administration has already done: Enlist young people themselves to communicate the message in a specific and personal way.

Studies have proved that the most effective messengers aren’t politicians or adults; they are peers. There is no better way to convey the depth and breadth of this administration's accomplishments for young people than by having young people share how their lives have changed as a result of President Biden’s policies.

Gen Z wants politicians to meet them where they are

But the buck can’t stop online. A presence and effective message on social media are crucial, but President Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and high-profile surrogates should take the reelection campaign directly to voters on college campuses as often as possible.

Although this requires effort, time and energy, there is real value to this. Look no further than Harris, who traveled to numerous college campuses throughout the country on her Fight for Our Freedoms College Tour.

One common through line from students – whether they were interested in politics or not – was the value of someone holding such a high office coming to campus and engaging with young people on issues most important to them. For a generation that is far too often overlooked and ignored in politics, having someone like President Biden or Vice President Harris show up, listen and talk to us matters. It shows us that we, too, belong in the political process.

Gen Z will be unbeatable force in 2024 – if we stand up to the far right together

Meeting young voters where they are online and on college campuses is a necessary first step, but it must also include a message bolder than before.

In addition to many young people being unaware of what the Biden administration has done, there are also some who may feel comfortable sitting the 2024 election out. This is why, at every moment possible, Biden must make the contrast between what he promises to do and the threat that Trump and the Republican Party pose to the fabric of democracy.

The occasions that Biden has spoken about the continued danger of Trump on our elections and democracy have among his strongest speeches. President Biden should lean into those moments more. He shouldn’t be afraid of calling Trump out for being a dictator or describing what Trump and his party are doing as authoritarian or fascistic.

The more young people – and the broader electorate – can understand that, while there may be some disagreements with President Biden, 2024 is, fundamentally, a choice between democracy and anti-democracy, the more it will raise the stakes of not voting.

Former Vice President Joe Biden takes a selfie with supporters following a presidential campaign stop in Council Bluffs, Iowa, in 2019.
Former Vice President Joe Biden takes a selfie with supporters following a presidential campaign stop in Council Bluffs, Iowa, in 2019.

Coupled with a strong rebuke of Trump and the Republican Party must also include a tangible vision for the future. As motivating a factor Trump may play in turnout among young people, what will be even more important to ensure young voters turnout for Biden – as opposed to a third-party candidate – is a strong vision for what he will do in a second term.

For instance, emphasizing that there is still work to be done on student loans, child care, health care, gun violence, climate change – and that the only way to make the progress needed on those issues and more is to reelect him and vote Democrat all the way down the ballot.

Victor Shi
Victor Shi

With the new year upon us, and the reelection campaign well underway, the greatest challenge ahead of November will be mobilizing enough young people to turn out at equally high rates as that of 2020 – or higher. Regardless of what polls may suggest, young voters are ripe for President Biden’s taking. If he meets young people where we are, plays hardball with Republicans and gives us something concrete to believe in and have hope for, we will catapult him back into the White House.

There is no better time than now to start.

Victor Shi is a senior at UCLA, serves as strategy director for Voters of Tomorrow and co-hosts the "iGen Politics" podcast. He was the youngest elected delegate for Joe Biden and has worked on presidential, congressional and local campaigns. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter: @Victorshi2020 

You can read diverse opinions from our Board of Contributors and other writers on the Opinion front page, on Twitter @usatodayopinion and in our daily Opinion newsletter.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Gen Z will elect Biden over Trump in 2024, polling numbers aside