Will a hurricane hit Florida during 2024 season? Research shows state's, many counties' risk

Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
·4 min read

It's official. And if there was any remaining doubt in your mind about the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, there shouldn't be now.

The National Hurricane Center issued its outlook for the season this morning, and forecasters agreed with earlier predictions from forecasters at AccuWeather and Colorado State University: the 2024 season will be busy, much busier than an average season.

But what about Florida? Can we expect one or more hurricanes or tropical storms to hit the state this year?

➤ Interactive map: Track active storms

Colorado State University looked at NOAA's historical hurricane tracks to predict what the 2024 hurricane season could mean to residents in the Sunshine State. Here's what they found:

Will a hurricane or tropical cyclone hit Florida in 2024? What about landfall from a major hurricane?

Here are the chances of tropical cyclone impact probabilities, which CSU defined as one or more storms within 50 miles of each location). Florida tops the coastal U.S. when it comes to the forecast probability of impact from a named storm.

2024 forecast probability of named storm impact, top 5:

  • Florida: 96%

  • North Carolina: 85%

  • Louisiana: 84%

  • Georgia: 82%

  • Texas: 80%

2024 forecast probability of hurricane impact, top 5:

  • Florida: 75%

  • North Carolina: 56%

  • Louisiana: 56%

  • Texas: 54%

  • Georgia: 46%

2024 forecast probability of major hurricane impact, top 5:

  • Florida: 44%

  • Texas: 25%

  • Louisiana: 23%

  • South Carolina: 14%

  • Alabama: 14%

Florida leads US in number of named storms from 1880-2020

The number of named storms that hit these states — ranking the top 10 — from 1880 to 2020 were:

  • Florida: 274

  • North Carolina: 159

  • Louisiana: 151

  • Georgia: 140

  • Texas: 133

  • Alabama: 123

  • South Carolina: 118

  • Virginia: 86

  • Massachusetts: 56

  • Maryland: 52

Florida leads US in number of hurricanes from 1880-2020

The number of hurricanes that hit these states — ranking the top 10 — from 1880 to 2020 were:

  • Florida: 115

  • North Carolina: 68

  • Louisiana: 68

  • Texas: 64

  • Georgia: 51

  • South Carolina: 48

  • Alabama: 46

  • Virginia: 31

  • Massachusetts: 22

  • Maryland: 16

Florida leads US in number of major hurricanes from 1880-2020

The number of major hurricanes that hit these states — ranking the top 10 — from 1880 to 2020 were:

  • Florida: 48

  • Texas: 24

  • Louisiana: 22

  • Alabama: 12

  • South Carolina: 12

  • North Carolina: 12

  • Georgia: 9

  • Massachusetts: 4

  • New York: 3

  • Virginia, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, New Hampshire: 2

CSU predicts Florida counties most likely to feel impact of tropical storms, hurricanes in 2024

2024 forecast probability of named storm impact by coastal county:

  • Monroe: 71%

  • Miami-Dade: 62%

  • Brevard: 61%

  • Broward: 61%

  • Collier: 61%

  • Palm Beach: 61%

  • Lee: 58%

  • Escambia: 57%

  • Nassau: 57%

  • Volusia: 57%

  • Charlotte: 56%

  • Duval: 56%

  • Martin: 56%

  • St. Johns: 56%

  • Indian River: 55%

  • Manatee: 55%

  • Pinellas: 54%

  • Hillsborough: 53%

  • Levy: 53%

  • Okaloosa: 53%

  • Pasco: 53%

  • Sarasota: 53%

  • St. Lucie: 53%

  • Taylor: 53%

  • Dixie: 52%

  • Franklin: 52%

  • Santa Rosa: 52%

  • Walton: 52%

  • Bay: 51%

  • Citrus: 51%

  • Flagler: 51%

  • Gulf: 51%

  • Hernando: 51%

  • Jefferson: 49%

  • Wakulla: 48%

2024 forecast probability of hurricane impact

  • Monroe: 46%

  • Miami-Dade: 36%

  • Broward: 35%

  • Collier: 34%

  • Palm Beach: 34%

  • Lee: 29%

  • Manatee: 29%

  • Escambia: 28%

  • Martin: 28%

  • Hillsborough: 28%

  • Brevard: 27%

  • Volusia: 27%

  • Charlotte: 27%

  • Indian River: 27%

  • Pinellas: 27%

  • Pasco: 27%

  • Sarasota: 27%

  • Walton: 27%

  • Bay: 27%

  • Citrus: 27%

  • Hernando: 27%

  • Santa Rosa: 26%

  • Okaloosa: 25%

  • St. Johns: 24%

  • St. Lucie: 24%

  • Gulf: 24%

  • Duval: 23%

  • Levy: 23%

  • Franklin: 23%

  • Flagler: 23%

  • Nassau: 22%

  • Dixie: 21%

  • Wakulla: 20%

  • Taylor: 18%

  • Jefferson: 16%

2024 forecast probability of major hurricane impact:

  • Monroe: 27%

  • Miami-Dade: 23%

  • Collier: 21%

  • Lee: 19%

  • Broward: 18%

  • Charlotte: 17%

  • Palm Beach: 15%

  • Sarasota: 14%

  • Manatee: 13%

  • Escambia: 11%

  • Martin: 11%

  • Hillsborough: 11%

  • Pinellas: 11%

  • Indian River: 10%

  • Brevard: 9%

  • Walton: 9%

  • Santa Rosa: 9%

  • Okaloosa: 9%

  • St. Lucie: 9%

  • Pasco: 8%

  • Bay: 8%

  • Hernando: 7%

  • St. Johns: 6%

  • Duval: 6%

  • Nassau: 6%

  • Citrus: 5%

  • Gulf: 5%

  • Levy: 5%

  • Franklin: 5%

  • Volusia: 4%

  • Flagler: 4%

  • Dixie: 2%

  • Wakulla: 2%

  • Taylor: 1%

  • Jefferson: 1%

How did CSU make its state and county predictions for the 2024 hurricane season?

Colorado State University made its predictions based on historical hurricane tracks between 1880 and 2020, looking at storms that tracked within 50 miles of each landmass.

"On average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall," CSU said.

How many tropical cyclones are there in an average season?

A typical season, based on a 30-year average, has 14 named storms, seven of which develop into hurricanes.

The National Hurricane Center predicted the 2024 season could see up to 25 named storms. Eight to 15 could become hurricanes and four to seven could become major hurricanes.

A major hurricane is one that's Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The record number of named storms in a season is 30, set in 2020.

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Florida hurricane impact in 2024: Chances high for named storm