Hurricane forecasters see ‘extremely active’ 2024 storm season. What that means for NC

Martha Quillin
·3 min read

Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University say record-warm temperatures in areas of the Atlantic Ocean mean there will likely be many more storms than average in 2024, and there’s a greater likelihood that a major hurricane will make landfall in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast.

Here’s what that might mean for the East Coast — and North Carolina — this year.

Why do forecasters expect such an intense hurricane season?

The researchers’ report, released during the National Tropical Weather Conference, is one of several forecasts that come out each year offering guidance on the Atlantic hurricane season. It agrees with forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the N.C. Climate Office’s own Corey Davis, who all say that the strong El Niño that has affected global weather since last year will give way to a La Niña sometime between June and August.

NOAA says that La Niña cycles often increase the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and allow stronger storms to form.

How many hurricanes do forecasters expect?

The Colorado State University prediction calls for:

▪ 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. The average number of named storms each year from 1991-2020 is 14.4, forecasters said.

▪ 11 hurricanes, compared to an average of 7.2 during the same 30-year period

▪ 5 major hurricanes, compared to an average of 3.2

Surfers near Cherry Grove Pier in North Myrtle Beach, S.C. enjoyed the waves created by Hurricane Lee’s passage off the Carolina coastline. Sept. 15, 2023.
Surfers near Cherry Grove Pier in North Myrtle Beach, S.C. enjoyed the waves created by Hurricane Lee’s passage off the Carolina coastline. Sept. 15, 2023.

What is the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the US this year?

Colorado State University forecasters say chances are higher this year than the historical average that a major hurricane will make landfall in the Atlantic basin, and the likelihood increases farther south. Forecasters estimate a:

▪ 62% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this season somewhere on the entire continental U.S. coast, compared to a 43% chance on average based on historical data from 1880 to 2020.

▪ 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the East Coast, compared to a 21% probability on average from 1880 to 2020.

▪ 42% chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas, compared to a 27% chance historically

▪ 66% chance for a major hurricane to strike the Caribbean, compared to a 47% chance historically

Hurricane Hazel in 1954 is the only Category 4 hurricane that has hit North Carolina. Storm surge flooded areas along the coast, including Morehead City, shown here. Hazel brought 90 mph winds as far inland as Raleigh.
Hurricane Hazel in 1954 is the only Category 4 hurricane that has hit North Carolina. Storm surge flooded areas along the coast, including Morehead City, shown here. Hazel brought 90 mph winds as far inland as Raleigh.

Will NC get hit with a hurricane this year?

CSU researchers also calculate the probability of tropical storm impacts for each state and county along the Gulf and East coasts, including North Carolina. According to their calculations:

▪ Overall, there is an 85% chance that North Carolina will be affected by a named tropical storm in 2024. From 1880 to 2020, the average likelihood of the state being affected by a named storm was 68%,

▪ There is a 56% chance the state will be affected by a hurricane this year, compared to a 38% average historical likelihood

▪ There is a 13% chance the state will be affected by a major hurricane — Category 3 or above — this year, compared to an 8% likelihood on average historically

A home sits in the surf in Rodanthe in September 2023 as Hurricane Lee churns in the Atlantic. The federal government recently bought two threatened houses in Rodanthe to test whether that’s a viable way to prevent more from falling into the ocean.
A home sits in the surf in Rodanthe in September 2023 as Hurricane Lee churns in the Atlantic. The federal government recently bought two threatened houses in Rodanthe to test whether that’s a viable way to prevent more from falling into the ocean.

What’s the first tropical storm name for 2024?

Alberto, followed by Beryl, Chris and Debby.