How President Trump can succeed, or crater

It’s a rare president who doesn’t suffer from hubris at some point. President Donald Trump begins his tenure with greater exposure to this disabling flaw than many of his predecessors.

Trump is promising—or threatening—to remake much of the federal government, as if voters sent him to Washington to dismantle institutions that have upheld the nation for decades. Some of those institutions are clearly malfunctioning, and Americans want change. But voters conveyed a straightforward message on Election Day: They want more prosperity. They want to feel safer. And they want government to work better. That’s about it. If Trump misunderstands that message and reaches too far, it will imperil his presidency.

Like every president, Trump’s job is to fix what’s broken. But he must also be sure not to break what is working. This is where it gets tricky, because in his campaign rhetoric, Trump often blamed dubious causes for the problems Americans care most about. Here’s how Trump can succeed now that he has to translate that rhetoric into action, or overreach and stray into dangerous territory:

Jobs. Americans want better jobs that provide more opportunity, more financial security and a middle-class lifestyle. This is crystal clear from numerous polls that show economic issues are by far the top concern for most Americans. Voters don’t particularly care how President Trump improves the economy. They just want it to be better.

Trade. Trump got surprising traction on this issue in the campaign, especially as he bashed China and Mexico for taking American jobs. But it would be a mistake to conclude Americans feel strongly about trade one way or another. Trade is nothing more than a proxy for jobs and prosperity. If prosperity improves through free trade, great; if it improves through protectionism, that’s fine too. Nobody cares. But if Trump were to begin imposing tariffs that push up prices, he’ll quickly discover that Americans like cheap imported goods and will punish anybody who takes them away.

Taxes. Everybody wants a tax cut. But Trump’s plan favors wealthy Americans and corporations far more than the middle class, and if he doesn’t deliver on jobs, a tax plan that’s supposed to stimulate the economy will end up looking like a giveaway to elites.

Healthcare. Like many other Republicans, Trump vilified the Affordable Care Act, which is on its way to being repealed. But Americans aren’t as opposed to the ACA as Trump may think. What voters really want is a break from healthcare costs that are rising much faster than incomes, and have been for years. That gets conflated with Obamacare, but it’s not the ACA that’s pushing up costs. That’s happening for a bunch of other reasons no president has been able to control for the last 40 years. Voters didn’t tell Trump they want him to take healthcare away from people. They told him they want their own costs to go down. If Trump repeals the ACA without lowering costs, it will make Obamacare look good compared with whatever comes next.

Regulations. Business owners feel overregulation acutely, especially at the state and local level where permits are often necessary at every step and bureaucratic rules seem to impede commerce. But for many Americans, this is just another proxy for swollen government that’s not making their lives better. Trump can do some good by slashing obsolete or intrusive regulations that accomplish little. But again, if voters don’t associate this with improved prosperity, it will seem like another sop to corporate interests.

Security. Trump will undoubtedly have to deal with terrorist incidents and mass shootings, as every other modern president has had to. He promised to do more than President Obama to keep Americans safe, such as getting tougher on Islamic State in the Middle East and banning immigrants from certain countries. But if Trump takes those steps and troubling incidents continue anyway, he’ll look feckless and perhaps even reckless.

Meanwhile, here are a bunch of things Americans don’t really want Trump to do: They don’t want him to gut environmental protection laws. They’re not all that worried about immigration and don’t favor a bigger wall on the Mexican border. They don’t want culture wars, wholesale changes to the education system or sharp cutbacks in aid to the needy. Trump can succeed if he presides over modest improvements to the economy. But a radical remaking of everything the government oversees is way more than voters asked for. It might be simpler than Trump thinks to make America great again.

Rick Newman is the author of four books, including Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman.