How the moon will change this decade during new 'space race'

By the end of this decade, human beings will have revisited the moon, and robotic landers from Russia, China and America will be at the forefront of a new space race.

It’s more than 50 years since astronauts last set foot on the moon, but the new space race is focused on extracting the moon’s riches - from rare earth metals to Helium-3, a potential energy source for fusion power plants.

By the middle of this decade, NASA hopes to put the first woman on Mars, and America, Russia and China are all planning moon bases over the longer term.

There are even plans for a railway on the moon: Defence contractor Northrop Grumman is now drawing up plans with NASA for a moon railway to transport goods and supplies, which could be in place by mid-way through next decade, just over ten years from now.

Who is planning to return to the moon?

As well as NASA, China hopes to put human beings on the moon by 2030, with further plans to build a lunar research station.

China aims to send robotic landers to the moon in preparation, and like NASA hopes to mine Helium-3, which is rare on Earth, and other resources

NASA’s Lunar Gateway Space Station will be a manned ‘home from home’ which will orbit the moon and pave the way for robotic and then human missions to the moon.

The first crewed orbit of the moon is scheduled for 2025 and a manned landing for 2026. NASA’s 30-day Artemis 3 mission will put the first woman on the moon near the lunar South Pole, with two astronauts spending a week on the moon.

Russia has also announced plans to return to the moon, with a crewed landing and potential moon base by 2031, according to official news agency TASS.

Why are countries returning to the moon?

The last ‘space race’ centred around the technological capability to reach the moon, and was linked to the arms race to build ballistic missiles.

This space race is about exploiting the resources of the moon: these range from water ice (which could provide hydrogen fuel for missions to Mars or even further) along with ‘rare earth’ minerals, scarce on Earth, which are used in electronics.

Helium-3, a form of helium which is common on the moon, has been touted as an energy source for fusion power plants, which could (in theory) offer ‘clean’ nuclear power.

No nuclear fusion plants are operational, but breakthroughs in nuclear fusion are happening rapidly.

NASA has used the term ‘lunar gold rush’, with analyst Morgan Stanley suggesting that the space industry could be worth $1 trillion a year by 2040.

What are the risks?

With resources on the moon potentially worth trillions, some have suggested that conflict over the moon’s riches could spark a war.

It’s unclear who legally ‘owns’ the moon or any resources found there.

The United Nations 1966 Outer Space Treaty says, ‘Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be free for exploration and use by all States without discrimination of any kind, on a basis of equality and in accordance with international law, and there shall be free access to all areas of celestial bodies.’

What’s less clear is how this applies to private companies: a 2020 attempt by the United States to establish ‘safe zones’ on the moon in the Artemis Accords was not joined by either China or Russia.