How hot will it be this summer in Wisconsin? Here's what AccuWeather predicts

Claire Reid, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
·3 min read
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Back in February, Wisconsin closed out its warmest winter on record; since then, temperatures have remained above average.

March was the state's 12th-warmest third month of the year since record-keeping began in 1895, and the National Weather Service recently shared that this April tied for Milwaukee's eighth-warmest.

This warm-weather streak is expected to continue ... if AccuWeather's long-range forecast team has predicted correctly. On Wednesday, AccuWeather released its U.S. summer forecast, which predicts temperatures will soar 2 to 4 degrees above the historical average across much of the country in the coming season.

AccuWeather also predicts flooding and a potentially record-breaking hurricane season for the Gulf Coast states, as well as drought conditions in multiple regions, including the Upper Midwest.

Here's AccuWeather's summer forecast for Wisconsin.

AccuWeather predicts temperatures to be 2 to 4 degrees above the historical average across much of the country this summer.
AccuWeather predicts temperatures to be 2 to 4 degrees above the historical average across much of the country this summer.

What is the summer 2024 forecast for Wisconsin?

Throughout most of Wisconsin, including the Milwaukee area, AccuWeather predicts June through August temperatures will be 3 to 4 degrees above the historical average. Far northern parts of the state could see temps 4 or more degrees above average.

According to State Climatology Office data, mean normal temperatures for Wisconsin in June, July and August are 65.1, 69.2 and 67.2 degrees, respectively.

"We expect that a large dome of high pressure, for a good portion of the summer, will kind of 'camp over' the Midwest-Great Lakes region, and that's what we're thinking is going to deliver that heat," said AccuWeather long-range meteorologist Alex DaSilva.

AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok said the heat could bring higher energy bills for families and businesses nationwide running air conditioners "around the clock."

"Energy demand is expected to be higher compared to average ...," Pastelok said in a statement. "Summer 2024 can feature heat waves for many areas across the Plains to the Northeast. Compared to historical averages, the hottest areas could be over the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and southwest Plains."

AccuWeather predicts "some" drought conditions this summer in southern Wisconsin. "Moderate" drought conditions are expected for the northern portion of the state.
AccuWeather predicts "some" drought conditions this summer in southern Wisconsin. "Moderate" drought conditions are expected for the northern portion of the state.

Drought conditions are expected to hit northern Wisconsin hardest this summer

Following this winter's below-average snowfall, drought conditions and increased wildfire threats are expected in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, AccuWeather says.

Southern Wisconsin is expected to see "some" drought intensity, while northern portions of the state could see "moderate" intensity. The good news for the Milwaukee area is that it's seen above-average precipitation so far this year.

"We've seen 140 percent of normal precipitation," DaSilva said. "We saw 13.42 inches at the Milwaukee airport from Jan. 1 to the end of April, and the average is 9.61."

This, he said, has spared the area from drought so far and could help alleviate it from the worst of the drought later in the season during the expected summer warm and dry spells.

Meanwhile, northern Wisconsin is expected to be "much more at risk of seeing potentially severe or extreme drought," DaSilva said. As a result, this portion of the state will likely be more prone to wildfires this summer.

Severe weather, like thunderstorms and high winds, are forecasted to peak in Wisconsin in July and August.
Severe weather, like thunderstorms and high winds, are forecasted to peak in Wisconsin in July and August.

Severe weather and thunderstorms are in the forecast for July and August

Late-summer thunderstorms are also expected to lessen the impact of drought conditions in southern Wisconsin. Throughout the summer, precipitation totals are forecast to be near average in the Milwaukee area, DaSilva said.

"That's because we're expecting that, even though there are going to be periods of very warm, very dry conditions, we can also get those thunderstorm complexes sometimes that can deliver a good bit of rain with them."

However, these thunderstorms could also bring "derechos" ― intense windstorms that can cause widespread damage. A derecho generates winds over 58 miles per hour across an area of more than 400 miles wide, AccuWeather explains.

Often, derechos develop around the top of an area of high pressure, DaSilva said. So, the same dome of high pressure causing above-average temperatures in the Midwest could make the area more prone to these high winds.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: AccuWeather summer 2024 prediction for Milwaukee is hot and stormy