Hopes grow for ceasefire deal in Israel-Hamas war

Semafor Signals

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Insights from The New York Times, The Telegraph, Haaretz, Bloomberg, and The Guardian

The News

Negotiators are hopeful that they are nearing a truce agreement in the Israel-Hamas war that could see a temporary pause in hostilities for the exchange of dozens of Israeli hostages.

Talks are in progress even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday vowed to invade the Gazan city of Rafah “with or without a deal,” the Associated Press reported. “The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question,” he said.

The specter of the International Criminal Court launching war crimes charges against top Israeli officials is also casting a shadow over a potential truce. Some US lawmakers have said that Washington would retaliate if the court issues arrest warrants. Neither the US nor Israel recognize the court’s jurisdiction.

SIGNALS

Israel lowers number of hostages required for truce

Sources:  The New York Times, The Telegraph

Though terms of the possible deal have not yet been publicized, Israel has reportedly agreed to lower the number of hostages it requires Hamas to release from 40 to 33 — in part because it believes that some of those being held have already died. In a rare proof-of-life video released by Hamas last week, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, a US hostage held in Gaza, said about half of the hostages taken during Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack had died. He claimed that as many as 70 were killed in Israeli bombing, though Israel estimates that number is significantly lower. Hostages are living in an “underground hell without water, food, sun or medical treatment,” he said.

Netanyahu weighs options he once opposed

Source:  Haaretz

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may now be among a minority in his war cabinet that is not prepared to accept a truce deal. Most members are prepared to compromise by aborting a planned invasion of Rafah, where Israel believes Hamas militants still have a stronghold, Haaretz reported. Netanyahu, though, is still pushing for an incursion into the city, calls that are echoed by extreme right-wing members of the Israeli government. The invasion into Rafah has been opposed by the US and other allies for the risk it poses to civilian lives. “Netanyahu is outflanked by his partners on the far right and Likud cabinet ministers who are demanding that Rafah be conquered even at the expense of the loss of a deal,” Haaretz military correspondent Amos Harel wrote.

Threat of ICC warrants could upend deal

Sources:  Bloomberg, The Guardian

A truce deal could fall apart if the ICC proceeds with arrest warrants against Israeli officials, according to sources that spoke to Bloomberg. Diplomats from the Group of Seven nations are working urgently to convey the risk to the Hague, with the US opposing an ICC intervention: On Monday, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said, “We’ve been really clear about the ICC investigation. We don’t support it, we don’t believe that they have the jurisdiction.”