After holiday season, number of COVID cases is a fraction of last year's level

Jan. 26—In the weeks following the winter holiday season, reported cases of COVID-19 in Frederick County and Maryland remain far lower than the dramatic spike recorded in January of 2022.

"That rate of increase [this year] did not match what we saw last year," said Rissah Watkins, director of planning, assessment and communication at the Frederick County Health Department, who specializes in epidemiology. "Which was wonderful, because last year's rates were astronomically high — the number of cases, number of hospitalizations, number of deaths."

Frederick County saw a peak of 868 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Jan. 12, 2022, which aligned with the emergence of the then-novel omicron variant, compared to 37 cases on the same day this year.

And although those counts do not fully include cases from at-home tests, whose positive results are not always reported, they are some indicator that the county has entered "a more easily maintained phase," according to Watkins, in which COVID-19 response has transitioned significantly from the high alert phase it was once in.

Concurrently, two other respiratory illnesses — influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV — that once threatened to create what health experts called a "tripledemic" are also waning from peaks in November and December.

Flu-associated hospitalizations in Maryland were at 63 at the end of last week, compared to a weekly high of 593 in December. RSV hospitalizations were down from a November high of 264 to 23 in the most recent report from the Maryland Department of Health.

Watkins said that the occurrence of COVID-19 cases over the past two winters might indicate a seasonality similar to that of the flu and RSV.

"That seems likely, but we've also seen that new variants can pop up at any time and can cause surges in cases," Watkins said.

To minimize the impact of those surges, Watkins said, some preventative actions have been normalized since the onset of the coronavirus in 2020. Those include simple acts like staying home when feeling sick, hand washing and some amount of distancing and masking.

"COVID isn't going away. We will continue to see it as an illness that is affecting people and causing severe illness and some hospitalization and death in those who are the most vulnerable," Watkins said. But through those normative measures, "whenever new variants come up or whatever respiratory illness is circulating at the moment, we have some ability to protect ourselves and our families."

The county is still offering COVID-19 vaccination clinics with boosters and primary doses, Watkins said, another tool in building community protection.

Despite downward trending cases, Watkins said, there are still people who are immunocompromised and more vulnerable to the coronavirus, and have a heightened awareness.

Watkins recognized a benefit in those who mask and distance out of consideration for those community members. Before the pandemic, during especially bad flu seasons or spreads of other respiratory illnesses, people who are immunocompromised may have been alone when it came to masking, she said.

"To have others understand that a little bit more and to have others wearing masks and taking protective steps," Watkins said, "I think just helps raise awareness a little bit. So perhaps a silver lining."

When it comes to day-to-day decisions regarding COVID-19, Watkins said, there is value in checking daily numbers on cases and community spread if that is of concern for someone, but recommended balancing that with a level of disconnection when the act causes anxiety.

"Once you have that information and you've made your decision," Watkins said, "if it's possible, disconnect for a little while and make sure you have that time to have mental health checks with yourself."