All the new clues Janet Yellen dropped about the next Fed rate hike

It’s the event investors have been waiting for all week: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Policy Symposium, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

In her speech, Yellen presented an optimistic view of the economy, providing a few hints about the path of future rate hikes.

“Indeed, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months,” Yellen said, stressing that the economy is now nearing the Fed’s goals of maximum employment and price stability.

However, she did note that inflation remained weak, dampening the need to increase rates soon.

“[T]he FOMC expects moderate growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), additional strengthening in the labor market, and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next few years,” Yellen said.

While the speech, titled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit,” focused mostly on how to battle the next crisis in a slow growth and low rate environment, she devoted the first section to discussing current economic trends.

“Based on this economic outlook, the FOMC continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate over time to achieve and sustain employment and inflation near our statutory objectives,” she said.

Given that the Fed is nearing its goals on employment and inflation, it is also nearing the time for another rate hike, notes Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at The Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi. “The Fed Chair would not have raised the curtain like this if she were not almost certain that September was the time to resume their gradual and cautious pace of rate hikes,” he said.

In recent weeks a few members of the Fed, including Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, have echoed Yellen’s positive economic outlook.

“We are close to our targets,” Fischer said at The Aspen Institute in Colorado, citing strength in the labor market and improving inflation data.

The unemployment rate has hovered around 5% for the past year, a level many economists consider to be near full employment. But most importantly, said Fischer, it’s been resilient– it stayed low even as the dollar strengthened, during the turmoil in China and uncertainties of the Brexit.

“The August jobs report will help clarify the level of urgency felt among FOMC members to boost rates before the end of the year,” said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s senior economic analyst. “My sense is the odds remain against a September boost, but favor a move around December, as long as there’s no dramatic change in incoming economic data.”

Meanwhile, output growth has been less than impressive. Real GDP is now estimated to have increased only 1.1%, revised downward from an initial reading of 1.2%.

“U.S. economic activity continues to expand, led by solid growth in household spending…While economic growth has not been rapid, it has been sufficient to generate further improvement in the labor market,” said Yellen.

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is set for September 20-21. Market expectations for a September rate hike remain low at 24% with the majority of traders forecasting a rate hike by the end of the year.