Here's how to make some dough off the Brexit vote: trader

Because that's why we're here.

By Stephen Guilfoyle

Good afternoon,

What do you think will be the bigger story today—Great Britain heading to the polls or the release of the first tranche of the Fed's stress tests for the big banks? Yeah, you're right. We'll talk about what's happening in the UK all day even though we won't know anything about it ... all day.

Stress test results are flying under the radar

The stress tests can be important, but probably the more important results will be released in the second tranche of results next Wednesday. That's when the 33 banks in this year's study will find out who will be able to increase their shareholder dividends—and who will not.

For those of you who don't eat financial news for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, these stress tests throw a couple of (well, stressful) items at the banks—like a simulated 10% unemployment rate and a simulated negative interest rate policy—and attempts to assess what the events would do to their revenue flow (solvency).

Dividends and corporate re-purchases are not included at first, but are added for next week's results. As a trader, the headlines are probably what you will trade off of here—not the nitty gritty. That said, you might as well at least have a simplified idea of what the Fed is looking at.

Last minute Brexit ideas (making some dough is why we're here)

For the rest of this week, what this Brexit referendum does to exchange rates and bond yields will have greater influence on equity prices within the financial sector than does the "stress test "examination. Being that, we'll be forced to follow British developments very closely, and one might as well try to figure out a way to make a little dough in this odd environment.

I've been watching Diageo (DEO) for a couple of weeks. This one has been moving almost in lock step with the British pound, but being a "booze" stock, it has a retail following that exaggerates its moves in proportion to what the pound is actually doing versus the dollar. The ADR (easier to access for most of you) is trading close to 112 this morning on a strong GBP/USD, but has traded close to 106 this week when the pound was lower.

If you think this whole thing washes over (or that a weaker pound might actually help a British exporter going forward), that might be your play in the equity. This would be on an emotional currency pull-back tomorrow if you have the risk tolerance. If tolerance for risk is a problem, maybe try it through a bull call spread.

Need a backdoor hedge? Or maybe you just think that in the end, the Brits will indeed vote themselves off of the island and you don't have an FX trading account. In that case, the UK pound ETF FXB, which is listed at the NYSE, may be your cup of tea.

FXB is trading at 145. Some of you have probably read Steve Sears in Barron's, as he wrote on this idea just this week. As of last night, FXB 140 puts expiring in July were pricing around $3.25. Those puts are sure to open lower.  If you think George Soros is right about a double digit percentage devaluation for the pound (no sure thing), this expense may end up seeming like lunch money and those puts will give you three weeks to be right.

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