Heitkamp Upset Likely in North Dakota

In what's poised to be an upset victory, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp holds a small but sturdy lead against Rep. Rick Berg for the open North Dakota Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Kent Conrad.

With only 0.5 percent of precincts left to report, Heitkamp's 1.2-point lead appeared unassailable, at least based on the votes left to count early Wednesday morning.

The Berg campaign released a statement at 2:30 a.m. indicating it would not make any announcements--concession or otherwise—until the state undergoes an official canvassing process, which "will certify the election and provide an official result," according to Berg spokesman Chris Van Guilder. The process is set to begin Friday but a final decision may not come until next week when all the counties complete the canvassing process.

Republicans initially considered the race an easy pickup, making Heitkamp's likely win all that much more surprising. The matchup between Heitkamp, a former state attorney general, and Berg, a first-term congressman, was considered a toss-up by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report until the end.

Cognizant of running against the grain in the red-shaded North Dakota, Heitkamp campaigned as a centrist and distanced herself from President Obama on issues key to North Dakota's economy, including energy and farming. Berg ran on a traditional GOP platform and Republican interest groups targeted Heitkamp when her views aligned with Obama’s, most notably the health care law.

Heitkamp overcame big political hurdles in a state that went solidly for GOP nominee Mitt Romney. Polling throughout the cycle showed Heitkamp and Berg neck-and-neck, which Democrats mostly attributed to a remarkably well-run campaign and a likeable candidate in Heitkamp.

When what was once considered a GOP slam-dunk turned competitive, national groups took note. Just a few days before the election, Romney cut an ad supporting Berg and President Clinton, arguably Obama's high-profile surrogate, stumped for Heitkamp.

Buoyed by energy and GOP interests, Berg had more money bankrolling his campaign than Heitkamp. As of Oct. 17, Berg had raised almost $6 million compared to Heitkamp’s $3.7 million, according to Center for Responsive Politics. He also entered the homestretch with almost double her cash-on-hand total: $1.2 million to Heitkamp’s $618,411.

Berg’s campaign was mostly fueled by oil and gas interests. Berg has promised the industry he would help ensure alleged onerous federal regulations don’t dampen the boom of unconventional oil production in the western part of the state. Donating more than $400,000 to his campaign, the industry outpaced all other sectors. Thanks in large part to the oil boom, the state has the country’s lowest unemployment rate at 3 percent.

Other industry that buoyed his campaign was the securities and investment sector. Leadership PACs from other congressional Republicans were also large contributors.

Heitkamp’s top industry was the legal profession, including the firms of Motley Rice (whose practice includes environmental issues) and Weitz & Luxenberg. The sector donated almost $280,000. Like Berg, Heitkamp received a hefty pile of money from leadership PACs—more than $250,000.

If Heitkamp’s lead holds, she will join a longer-than-expected list of Democratic wins in the upper chamber. Among competitive races, consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren beat Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts; Rep. Chris Murphy bested Linda McMahon in Connecticut for retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman’s seat; and Indiana Rep. Joe Donnelly upset state Treasurer Richard Mourdock for the seat of retiring Sen. Richard Lugar.