With Heat lineup decisions looming, what data says about best fits with Butler, Adebayo

The Heat heads into the final 12 games of the regular season as a flawed team with chronic injury problems and chronic offensive issues.

Heat players have missed the NBA’s fourth-most games due to injury after missing the eighth-most last season. The Heat is 27th in scoring (ahead of only lottery-bound Portland, Charlotte and Memphis) and 23rd in offensive rating (points per 100 possessions).

What’s more, the Heat is just 17-16 at home -- the worst home record among top nine seeds in either conference -- and 1-9 at home against top five seeds, heading into Sunday’s home game against third-seeded Cleveland (6 p.m., Bally Sports Sun). That’s not a good sign for a team that plays nine of its final 12 at home.

And Miami’s chances of avoiding the play-in grow more tenuous; the Heat (38-32) is seventh (1 1/2 games behind No. 6 Indiana) and would host No. 8 Philadelphia - which has the same record - in a play-in game if the season mysteriously ended today.

Meanwhile, two significant decisions loom for the play-in and the playoffs (if the Heat makes the playoffs): Who’s the starting shooting guard, presuming Tyler Herro makes it back from a foot injury by the end of the season and Duncan Robinson (back) returns fairly soon, as expected?

And who’s the starting power forward: Nikola Jovic, Caleb Martin or even Haywood Highsmith? It’s looking increasingly like Jovic will keep that role.

What the metrics say regarding both:

POWER FORWARD

Jovic has started the past 14 games that he has been available. That, combined with revealing comments from Erik Spoelstra, strongly suggest that the coach would like to make this Bam Adebayo/Jovic starting power rotation work – unless Jovic gives him reason to abandon it before the playoffs.

“The one thing I do know is they both have great skill levels,” Spoelstra said recently. “And it’s almost inverted with us, when two bigs can handle. They both can pass. They both can make plays. They can both finish at the rim. And they both feel very comfortable just being facilitators.

“That adds to the diversity of our menu. And Niko also helps us run more, which I like. I think the players hopefully like that, if they can get some easy baskets. His passing and skill level, size, all of those things fit.”

When Jovic has played with Adebayo and Jimmy Butler this season, Miami has outscored teams by 6.5 points per 48 minutes. That compares with a plus 9.5 per 48 minutes for the troika of Butler, Adebayo and Highsmith – a group that started together for a time earlier this season.

Even though Caleb Martin thrived alongside Butler and Adebayo during the playoffs last year, the Heat is just a plus 0.9 per 48 minutes with Butler, Adebayo and Martin on the court together this season.

Which of those three lineups produces the most offense?

Surprisingly, the Highsmith/Butler/Adebayo group, though that’s skewed by strong offensive games from Heat guards on some of those nights.

Miami has averaged 116.7 points per 48 minutes and shot 50.4 percent from the field and 40.1 percent on threes with those three on the floor together this season.

With Butler, Adebayo and Jovic, Miami averages 110.9 points per 48 minutes and is shooting 49.5 percent from the field and 41.6 percent on threes. (Jovic is shooting 41.6 percent on threes this season.)

With Butler, Adebayo and Martin, Miami is averaging just 107.9 points per 48 minutes.

Butler and Adebayo have played 284 minutes with Highsmith, 258 with Martin and 214 with Jovic.

“He’s a great passer,” Adebayo said of Jovic. “When you play alongside somebody like that who can also pass, it just makes your offense more dynamic. Just being able to get it off the rim and just being able to push and make plays for himself, I feel like that’s his biggest improvement.”

If Jovic plays well as a starter for the next three weeks, he figures to remain a starter heading into the playoffs.

But if the Heat plays Boston in the playoffs, keep this in mind: Jayson Tatum is 5 for his last 23 when Highsmith is guarding him.

STARTING SHOOTING GUARD

The notion of Herro not starting hasn’t been a consideration since he moved into the starting lineup at the start of last season, after winning the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award the previous season.

But if Robinson returns from a back injury sooner than Herro returns from a foot injury – and if Robinson resumes playing well - a decision looms for postseason, considering Herro’s extended absence after he played the first game following the All-Star break (Feb. 23).

Lineups featuring Butler, Adebayo and Robinson have been slightly better than lineups featuring Butler, Adebayo and Herro this season, but it’s negligible.

The Heat has averaged 113.8 points per 48 minutes and outscored teams by 5.7 points per 48 minutes when Butler, Adebayo and Robinson are on the floor together this season. They’ve played 385 minutes together.

The Heat has averaged 112.5 points per 48 and outscored teams by 5.2 points per 48 minutes when Butler, Adebayo and Herro are on the floor together this season. They’ll played 404 minutes together.

Miami has shot three-pointers better with the Herro/Butler/Adebayo trio than the Robinson/Butler/Adebayo group (41.7 percent to 39.4 percent).

Spoelstra seems bullish on a Herro/Terry Rozier pairing; he has repeatedly spoken of the possibilities of that backcourt.

But they’ve played just 180 minutes together, and Miami has been outscored by 4.0 points per 48 minutes when they’re on the floor at the same time.

But the Rozier/Robinson pairing hasn’t produced great team results, either; Miami has been outscored by 2.9 points per 48 minutes and shot just 32.5 percent on threes in their 361 minutes together.

Miami has averaged 112.8 points per 48 minutes with Rozier and Herro playing together, compared with just 104.1 per 48 with Rozier and Robinson.

For now, Miami’s shooting and spacing are at a deficit with Herro, Robinson and Kevin Love (heel) all out. How much does Miami miss them?

“A lot,” Adebayo said. “You can’t replace a guy like Duncan who shoots from anywhere, and Tyler, who creates his own shot, and the leadership of K-Love.”

In shooting 27.7 percent on threes against New Orleans on Friday, Miami missed 34 three-pointers, three short of the franchise record.

PELICANS GLOAT

New Orleans enjoyed its 111-88 Friday night drubbing of the Heat, especially after Butler had said that Miami had the better team and would beat the Pelicans for an eight consecutive time on Friday.

“We’re just a better team,” the Pelicans organization tweeted afterward, mocking Butler.

After the game, Butler said he stood by those comments: “I hope it added fuel to the fire. That’s fine. They had a great game plan, they made shots. They came here and stole one. I’m going to stick by what I said. We’re still the better team. You can’t win them all. We should have won that one. We damn sure should have. But we’ll be alright.”

Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado said Butler’s comments “backfired on them today. Hopefully, we see them again in a more important game, in the NBA Final.”

And New Orleans coach Willie Green said: “They said some things in the media. We heard it and we wanted to respond.”

INJURY UPDATE

Herro, Duncan Robinson and Love were ruled out for the Cleveland game.

Martin and Jaime Jaquez Jr. were both listed as questionable; both have ankle injuries combined with knee discomfort.