ST. LOUIS – An exclusive new Emerson College and The Hill swing state poll gives Donald Trump a clean sweep of the following seven states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

FOX 2 dug into the numbers with our Hancock and Kelley political team.

In head-to-head polling, former President Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden ranges from just under 1% in Nevada to more than 5% in North Carolina. 

Only North Carolina is out of the 3% margin of error.

“It’s problematic that (Biden’s) losing in all of those battleground states; there’s no doubt about it but most of those polls show he’s within the margin of error,” Democrat consultant Michael Kelley said.

“If you look at the electoral map, (Trump’s) in a very strong position and I think right now you would have to say he’s positioned to win,” Republican consultant John Hancock said. “I think it’s pretty clear from the polling that if RFK is in the mix, that’s going to help Donald Trump.”

If independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. is included in the poll, Donald Trump’s lead jumps beyond the margin of error in six of the states, ranging from 4% in Arizona and Pennsylvania to 9% in North Carolina. He still leads in Michigan, but only by 1%.

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Politics

The poll, however, does show Trump’s legal troubles have a potential “difference-making” impact. 24%–32% of independent voters across all seven states say they’d be less likely to support him if there’s a guilty verdict in his ongoing hush money trial. 

Overall, among independent voters, former President Trump leads in five of the states but Mr. Biden is ahead in Georgia and Wisconsin.

“The thing they’re doing the best is putting together a ground game,” Kelley said of the Biden campaign. “In all of these battleground states, the Biden campaign is already opening county offices. The Trump campaign hasn’t even opened state offices…a good field campaign can provide you with a 3-4 more percent voter turnout. That is truly what the Biden campaign is banking on. I truly think he’s going to win because of the field operation. Without that kind of type of infrastructure for the Trump campaign, he’s in trouble.”

“I think Donald Trump has got a big enough lead now where he can overcome whatever advantage the Democrats have in the ground game,” Hancock said. “I think all of the legal issues Donald Trump has have been baked into the mix at this point. He may win some states where he wasn’t even close in 2020. Sitting here tonight, it looks like a really good Republican election night in November.”

Hancock and Kelley agreed much will happen, including potential debates, in the near six months between now and then.

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