Will the Haley Voters Come Back in November?

From the Stirewalt on Politics on The Dispatch

It’s entirely possible that Nikki Haley could not only lose badly on Super Tuesday, but that in one scenario she gets shut out of delegates completely.

In states like California, Virginia, Vermont, and Utah, where there are plenty of Haley-leaning voters, rules dictate that if one candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, that candidate sweeps every delegate. Proportional becomes winner-take-all.

Some of this is because of Republicans’ long-standing preference for fast, decisive primaries that protect the frontrunner. In a parallel universe, that frontrunner might have been someone like Haley: The best candidate for the general election who has serious problems with the party’s populists and culture warriors. When it was Mitt Romney or John McCain, that’s exactly how it worked. Once the well-funded mainstream pick had momentum, they could blow away the competition as the map widened beyond the boutique electorates of the early states.

Some of the delegate disadvantage for Haley is because of state-level rule changes pushed by the supporters of the frontrunner, Donald Trump. A party that has long discouraged competitive primaries became a steel trap designed to clamp down on any stragglers. Once Trump took hold of the GOP eight years ago, he never loosened his grip.

This is so painful for the 30 or 40 percent of Republican dissenters precisely because these are the kinds of tactics that their wing of the party long used to keep the unruly rebels in check. It hurts even more when your advantage is turned into your weakness.

Now, Haley may break through in a couple places. There are some congressional districts in states like the ones listed above where she might bag a handful of delegates. But that’s the limit. The Michigan results, with Trump nearing 70 percent of the vote, showed us that the race is over. Haley can press on and pick up delegates in the remaining proportional delegate contests, but it seems very likely that by the end of this month, Trump will have the delegates he needs to be the nominee.

Which leaves us with the race almost no one wanted: an uglier, meaner version of the already mean and ugly 2020 election. What we don’t know, though, is how those Haley supporters will respond.

The Republican Party has closed ranks behind Trump faster and more thoroughly than perhaps even Trump’s team imagined. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, one of Trump’s most effective and relentless foes, announced Wednesday that he would be stepping down from his leadership post after the election. That—more than any concession speech Haley will ever give—signaled the end of the fight inside the party. It wasn’t that it was surprising that McConnell would go, but that he would say it now.

The Republican Party is roughly divided into thirds. One third is the Trump mega-MAGA community. They are all the way in and never backing out. Then there’s the third that lines up with Haley. The other third are the pure partisan loyalists. They go with the party always, even if they didn’t get their preferred pick in the primaries. The populists or the mainstreamers might sit out a race with a nominee they didn’t like —as we saw from the populists in 2012 and the mainstreamers in 2020. But the ones in between are unflinching.

The question going into the Republican primaries was whether any candidate could unite the non-Trump third fast and fully enough to make a play for the middle. But Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis went belly up, and by the time Haley could scramble to the fore, the loyalists were ready for the race to be over.

Now we get to find out how much of that non-MAGA third can be convinced to take one more ride on the Trump Train. Many will vote for President Joe Biden. Many will indeed hold their nose and vote GOP again. But what will probably make the difference will be how many of them just stay home.

DVR alert: Watch the debut episode of The Hill Sunday with Chris Stirewalt at 10 a.m. ET on NewsNation. Find your local channel here. Sunday’s guests will include Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin), Rep. Jim Himes (D-Connecticut) Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colorado), and a panel of top-notch journalists, including The Dispatch’s David Drucker.

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STATSHOT

Biden Job Performance
Average approval: 39.0%
Average disapproval: 57.6%
Net score: –18.6 points

Change from one week ago: ↑ 0.4 points

Change from one month ago: ↓ 1.4 points

[Average includes: Reuters/Ipsos: 37% approve-58%; Quinnipiac: 40% approve-57% disapprove; Marquette: 38% approve-62% disapprove; Monmouth: 39% approve-57% disapprove; NPR/PBS/Marist: 41% approve-54% disapprove]

Polling Roulette

[Monmouth University poll of U.S. adults, February 2024]

TIME OUT: BALLING OUT

The Ringer: “The jump ball is simultaneously one of basketball’s oldest traditions and one of its most curious regular events. … It’s among the last true Wild West frontiers in basketball, marked by the same foggy rule interpretations, quirky styles, and sense of lawlessness that characterized the first jump balls ever thrown. … Jump ball techniques have been passed down communally among officials for decades. Much of that has coalesced around the concept of misdirection to prevent jump ball ‘stealing,’ which Shaq and other top jumpers throughout history are so practiced at. … Every ref develops their own nuanced style. Joey Crawford had a method of moving his head side to side, ostensibly checking all 10 players, before suddenly tossing the ball up with two hands. Ed Rush would talk to the jumpers, then toss mid-sentence to surprise them; Steve Javie and current NBA ref czar Monty McCutchen would also bounce the ball while talking, randomizing their bounce height and the number of bounces to keep players guessing.”

GOP RIGHTS THE SHIP ON SENATE RECRUITMENT 

New York Times: “The Hogan recruitment served as a capstone to months of quiet success for Steve Daines and Senate Republicans, after more than a decade filled with recruiting disappointments, misfires and downright self-sabotage. … In 2024, the G.O.P. appears set to avert nasty primaries in several states, including Montana, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Mr. Daines has helped to bridge the G.O.P. divide, especially between the Donald J. Trump bloc of the party and the forces aligned with Senator Mitch McConnell. … ‘It’s finding candidates that can win both primaries and general elections,’ [Daines] said. In some instances, that formula has translated into strong-arming out more extreme candidates. … In others, the strategy of recruiting candidates capable of winning both the primary and general election has meant acquiescing to the Republican base.”

Amash joins GOP primary in Michigan: Detroit News: “Former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash said Thursday he will run for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Michigan, joining an already crowded field. … ‘After thoroughly evaluating all aspects of a potential campaign, I’m convinced that no candidate would be better positioned to win both the Republican primary and the general election.’ Amash said in a post on X. … Amash represented the Grand Rapids area in Congress for 10 years and saw his national profile soar after he became the only Republican member of Congress to support Trump’s first impeachment. … Amash left the Republican Party on July 4, 2019.”

Kim builds Jersey momentum with county convention wins: Politico: “Rep. Andy Kim won his third straight county convention on Sunday, beating his top rival, first lady Tammy Murphy, in his bid for the Democratic nomination for the Senate. … Kim’s [victories] means he wins the county line, placing him in the same ballot column as other party-endorsed candidates — a unique and hugely important feature of New Jersey’s primary system. … When asked if Kim had momentum in the race, Murphy said: ‘No, he does not. … he oversees 35 percent of Monmouth County [in Congress], that makes sense. Burlington, that’s his county.’”

Schiff, Porter proxy war boosts GOP candidates: Washington Post: “Days before the all-party primary for the U.S. Senate seat the late Dianne Feinstein held for decades, Democratic front-runner Adam Schiff and his allies are making an unusual gambit: spending a staggering $11.2 million elevating a Republican rival. … The seeming intent is to boost Garvey past Rep. Katie Porter, whom Schiff and his backers would prefer to avoid facing come November in this left-leaning state. … Schiff has made no apologies for elevating Garvey. Recent polls show that [Porter] is battling Garvey for second, even though Garvey is seen as having virtually no chance of beating Schiff in November. … When asked at a recent campaign event about Porter’s criticisms of what she called Schiff’s ‘brazenly cynical’ campaign tactics — and her own subsequent efforts to raise the profile of another Republican rival in the race, albeit with far fewer dollars — he answered with a smile.”

WHAT MICHIGAN’S ‘UNCOMMITTED’ VOTE MEANS FOR BIDEN

New York Times: “Having one in eight Democrats vote uncommitted in an uncontested primary is not wholly unusual. Having three in four Democratic primary voters in Arab American communities do it, on the other hand, is an eye-popping figure. … A vote for ‘uncommitted’ was a serious form of protest against Mr. Biden, but it’s just not the same as voting for Donald J. Trump in the general election. That simple fact limits how much we can read into the results for November. … Even though it may be hard to interpret a protest vote in a primary, the risk of defection from this group of voters should be taken seriously. This issue is very personal for them. … One could imagine Arab American and Muslim voters lurching decidedly toward Mr. Trump. [But] there’s one consolation for Democrats: These voters are a small share of the electorate, and it’s hard to see even a huge swing being decisive.”

Biden fills out campaign team with emphasis on Latino outreach: Politico: “Joe Biden’s campaign has elevated Alana Mounce to serve as its political director, along with bringing on board two other senior hires. … Mounce was Biden’s 2020 Nevada state director and was the executive director of the state Democratic Party before becoming political director at the Democratic National Committee. … The hires are further illustration of the reelection campaign staffing up in haste after spending the fall and early winter with a relatively small footprint. They also provide an indication of the states the campaign is prioritizing. In particular, Mounce’s elevation to political director underscores the central role that Nevada — and Latino voters, who make up about 20 percent of the state’s electorate — will play in Biden’s reelection effort.”

Teamsters to meet with Biden: USA Today: “President Joe Biden will meet with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, a powerful union representing more than 1.3 million rank-and-file members, at the labor group’s headquarters in Washington D.C. on March 12. Biden earned the Teamsters’ endorsement in 2020 over former President Donald Trump. The GOP frontrunner met with the group in January but it has yet to endorse a candidate in the 2024 presidential race. … The group invited all declared presidential candidates to meet with Teamsters members in December. … A 2024 endorsement from the Teamsters would fit well into Biden’s pro-union campaign narrative. Last September, Biden became the first president in U.S. history to join a picket line with striking auto workers in Michigan.”

BRIEFLY

SCOTUS takes Trump immunity case, arguments set for April—Wall Street Journal

Redistricting saga ends as New York legislature passes new maps—New York Times

Dem infighting could cost party a spot in California battleground—Los Angeles Times

Suozzi swearing-in further thins GOP majority—NBC News

WITHIN EARSHOT: WHOA THERE, BIG FELLA 

“Good sex.”—President Joe Biden explains to aides the key to a lasting and happy marriage. The 81-year-old incumbent has been married for 46 years. 

MAILBAG

“Could I suggest that you dispense with the italics for either the reader questions or Mr. Stirewalt’s answers, and that instead use indented blockquotes for the reader questions and regular text for his answers? That would be visually simpler, clearer, and more consistent with the style used throughout the rest of Dispatch Media’s webpages. Long paragraphs of italics are hard on the eyes. And indented blockquotes not only make clear what’s being quoted, but permit nested but still obviously structured quotations as well, and they break up the wall-o’-text that otherwise tends to blend together boringly. Pedantically but loyally yours.”—Bill Dyer, Houston, Texas

Mr. Dyer,

No. But what if we put the questions in boldface and the answers in regular script?

All best,

C

“Doesn’t it make sense for Haley and No Labels to join forces? Haley can’t overcome Trump’s lead among partisan fanatics in the primary. But her profile in the general election would be significantly better: She’s already the preferred candidate of old-school Republicans, and by being defined as the leading anti-Trump candidate, she’s earned as much goodwill among Democrats as anybody in the Republican party is going to get. A younger, female candidate positioned as the centrist in the race, she would at least have a shot at picking up a good chunk of the vote, and if nothing else peeling off enough dissatisfied Republicans who might otherwise drift back into negative partisanship to deny Trump a second term. Her odds at the presidency would still be low, but better going directly to the general as an independent than quixotically trying to overtake Trump in the primary. And from No Labels’ end, Haley is already a nationally recognized presidential candidate, already backed by a good chunk of donors who don’t appear fazed by her odds. Where are they going to find a stronger candidate? ”—Jason Moll, Augusta, Georgia

Mr. Moll,

That has certainly been the line that Team Trump has been pushing, saying basically that Haley is a traitor. She’s been adamant that she won’t switch sides. It’s understandable that she might reevaluate that position after Tuesday, but I doubt it. Aside from the danger of running into “sore loser” laws in some states that forbid losing primary candidates from switching parties to run in general elections, I don’t think that’s where either she or No Labels are headed. No Labels is, in its DNA, basically a place for moderates, with roots in the old, Third Way Clintonian approach to politics. The reason that Haley might make a good spoiler for Trump—she’s very conservative with next to no appeal to Democrats—is also the reason that No Labels would be hard-pressed to take her. Picking Haley would repudiate the 15 years of the project trying to find the squishy center. Saying you have no ideology is an ideology of its own, after all. And for Haley, what’s the fun in running a doomed effort that makes you a pariah in your own party and your home state? It strikes me that if No Labels is looking for a Trump antagonist, Chris Christie would be a much better choice. What I wonder, though, is if they will really field a ticket after all. It’s hard to imagine anyone they could accept that wouldn’t end up being a boon to Trump.

All best,

C

“Congratulations on your new gig as the new Tim Russert/Bob Schieffer of the Sunday morning news shows! I think the Russert comparison is an apt one because I think you’ll bring the same mix of a disarming nature that makes it seem less confrontational when you bring the questioning hammer down on some of these folks. Looking forward to it! As always, your analysis of the way social media has poisoned discourse with a hearty hand clasp from the MSM is on point. I think X in particular is an accelerant of this trend because it’s self-affirming for both sides. Some New Yorker/Atlantic/Vox lefty with 500,000 followers writes about how conservatives are closet bigots, some loser tweets back something horrid, and Lefty can say ‘See?’ Meanwhile Loser Guy has gotten someone with 500,000 followers to engage him, so they both feel good in a twisted way by the conversation. Also, I really liked the Bluebeard of Quiet Dell link.  I wasn’t aware of that!  Terrible as his crimes are, if you’re 5-foot-4, 175 pounds, and you’re able to make your living romancing women you must have some serious conversational game.”—Craig Berry, Frankfort, Illinois

Mr. Berry,

I’ve got Schieffer’s hairline and Russert’s physique, so I should be all set.

As for the “losers win” part of the distortions of social media, absolutely. And it obviously works on any ideological/partisan axis when professional pundits and media types go troll-hunting, not just left-to-right. And it is certainly older than social media. “Nut picking,” as David French calls it, long predates social media and reached a full flowering in the heyday of cable television. Now it’s just a lot easier to pick the nuts.

And, yes, isn’t the story of Harry Powers fascinating? You can read more on the Bluebeard of Quiet Dell here, but many people probably have some familiarity with the story. It was the inspiration for the fantastic novel Night of the Hunter by West Virginian David Grubb, which was in turn made into the magnificent, deeply chilling movie of the same name starring Robert Mitchum at his most icily menacing.

All best,

C

“Noticing the moves the Biden administration has made about trying not to upset the Arab American vote in Michigan, (and younger uber-progressives, what Brother Goldberg would call socialist barista types) I’ve come to wonder if Biden is making the mistake he avoided making in the 2020 primary (following the base over a cliff). I appreciate he needs to shore up the base, but is this the kind of issue that could cost him more in the long run (particularly by turning off the very college-educated suburbanite independents he needs to win)? Is winning Dearborn worth blowing the suburbs of Atlanta? Both the base and independents are not wild about Biden, so which would you say is more important to try to lock down? (Also, side question: Since this is the first repeat election since 1956, why doesn’t Biden own up to the old thing and steal Eisenhower’s slogan: ‘Better a part-time president than a full-time phony?’)”—Jared Painter, Westerville, Ohio

Mr. Painter,

I hate to cop out, but the answer is: both. Winning means not only motivating your base, but persuading the middle. Remember also that if you were to ask the next socialist barista who pours you a cuppa, they would not likely agree with the premise that Biden was following them anywhere. I suspect we will see Biden run (shuffle?) to the center in the coming months. He may not be able to ever win the hearts of the non-dairy chai community, but Democrats are counting on the terror induced by the thought of a Trump restoration to be more than enough to get them back on the blue team. And another, inverse effect will be happening on the other side. While Trump has what Biden lacks in the form of zealous enthusiasm, it will be hard for Republicans to generate the fear and anger about Biden necessary to get bummed-out GOP voters to storm the polls. Talk about a race to the bottom!

All best,

C

You should email us! Write to STIREWALTISMS@THEDISPATCH.COM with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name—at least first and last—and hometown. Make sure to let me know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the estimable Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!

CUTLINE CONTEST: UNSOOTHED SAYER 

What a way to start our March contest! The photo of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley pausing for prayer—a sweet moment—on the campaign trail in her home state is a little tricky. We don’t want to mock someone’s sincere faith, but neither can we pass up all the jokes. The answer from this week’s winner was to just steer around the issue entirely. A worthy first entry for the month, the winner of which will join the February winner you will see below in the quest for the ham of victory.

“I see an orange man in your future.”—Bob Bell, Roseville, California

Winner, Ezekiel 25:17 Division:

“Let us pray for the soul of our dear brother, Tim Scott. May he find his way back to the path to paradise, and away from Satan’s path to the U.S. Naval Observatory.  Amen.”—Paul Hoppenjans, Leesburg, Virginia

Winner, Eternally Yours Division:

“Forever and ever, or at least through March 5. Amen.”—Bill Ward, St. Augustine Beach, Florida

Winner, ‘You’re Soaking In It!’ Division:

“Dishwasher Soap? Oh, Madge, you soaked your hands in dishwasher soap?”—Allan Hardcastle, Lincoln, California

Winner, Show of Hands Division:

“Now you put your left hand on top then we alternate moving the bottom hand to the top then faster and faster …”—Richard Basuk, New York, New York

February Winner:

Degree of difficulty matters when it comes to picking winners, and our February prize goes to an entry that found a way through a dense visual field to find the golden gag. The photo was of President Biden pressing the flesh at a South Carolina barber shop, but the voter was completely bald. Winner Linda McKee of DuBois, Pennsylvania, gave us: “Patron shielded from mirror as ‘Take Your President to Work’ campaign goes awry.” Please send us your mailing address, Ms. McKee so that we can send along your fabulous prize: A giveaway comb (unused!) from the 1972 campaign that says: “President Nixon. Now more than ever.”

That entry was Ms. McKee’s ticket to the big show, by which of course we mean the opportunity to win a very large piece of cured meat. As an enticement to keep up the good work, we can report that after a holiday backorder at Edwards of Virginia was resolved, our 2023 winner has his ham. Winner Bob Goldman provided us not only with photographic proof, but with a cutline by him, about him. And it could be a winner all on its own:

“Mazel tov, a ham.”—Bob Goldman, Gilroy, California

YULE BE SORRY 

Daily Beast: “An Irish court has thrown out an injury claim filed by a mom who was photographed competing in—and winning—a Christmas tree toss by a newspaper, with a court ruling it proved her injuries from a 2017 car crash weren’t as bad as she claimed. The bizarre mistake by Kamila Grabska, 34, may have cost her as much as $820,000. … Grabska lost any hope in a payout after photos from the 2018 Christmas tree toss competition surfaced in her hometown, which showed her chucking a massive spruce.  Another photo showed her smiling with a plaque that declared her the competition’s winner. The case’s judge noted that Grabska didn’t appear to be in pain at the competition, with the Independent reporting he said it was a ‘very large, natural Christmas tree’ being thrown with ‘very agile movement.’”

Nate Moore contributed to this report.

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