Haiti’s political, civic leaders are at odds over who should be involved in transition

As Haiti’s armed gangs, already in control of some of the country’s strategic assets, threaten to overtake the National Palace to install their own president, Caribbean leaders prepare to meet in Jamaica on Monday for a one-day emergency session on the escalating crisis.

They will confront the harsh reality of a country under siege and a deeply divided, polarized society confronting a political stalemate. And they will have to tackle a key question: Can a political accord stem the tide of gang violence that is threatening to topple what’s left of the Haitian state? And would such an accord be workable if it excludes the leadership of the gangs?

Seven Caribbean leaders will be attending the meeting in Jamaica along with eight partner countries and the United Nations. The United States will be represented by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken. The State Department said Blinken will discuss a proposal to create a Haitian presidential panel to help move Haiti toward elections as well as the deployment of a Multinational Security Support mission to help police battle the gangs.

Haiti’s political and civic leaders have submitted seven different proposals to the 15-member Caribbean bloc known as CARICOM. None of the proposals advocate a place for any of the hundreds of armed gangs wreaking havoc in Port-au-Prince, or for former coup plotter Guy Philippe, the man some of the gangs want to install as president. But people close to the discussions say both topics have been raised during discussions about whether the presidential panel should reflect the current political and security reality of the streets.

Over the weekend, a gang chief known as Krisla warned police and employees of the National Palace over social media that on Monday the population will be in the streets. They will be occupying the area around the National Palace, he said, in order to “install the power in the palace, Sen. Guy Philippe.”

Political leader Liné Balthazar said while he isn’t lobbying for Philippe, who has been rallying support since returning to Haiti from a six-year stint in a U.S. prison on drug-related charges, or any gang leader to have a seat at the negotiating table, any transition has to reflect the people whose sentiments are being echoed by the gangs.

“We can’t reduce the country to just a small minority of people without taking into account the voices of the majority,” said Balthazar, the head of the Haitian Tèt Kale Party, PHTK. “We have to pay attention to what’s happening in the streets and in the provinces.”

PHTK, the party of former President Michel Martelly, was initially involved in negotiations with a group that included the political parties En Avant, led by former lawmaker Jerry Tardieu, and Fanmi Lavalas, the political party of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Also taking part in those talks were members of a group known as the Montana Accord, a coalition of civic groups and political parties that has been waging a nearly three year effort in the U.S. and Canada to oust Prime Minister Ariel Henry after challenging his legitimacy and governance.

After the talks broke down, PHTK joined an alliance with other political leaders and submitted their own separate proposal to CARICOM under the name January 30 Collective.

“There is a mass of people, poor people, who are discouraged.... It is up to us to provide a political perspective to prevent these masses from taking to the streets and following just anyone,” Balthazar said.

Another proposal, known as the March 9 Political Consensus, has been signed by representatives of the Montana Accord, the business community, religious leader and a member of the diaspora.

Haiti’s gangs could become arbiter

U.S. officials have asked CARICOM to take the lead in encouraging Haitians to find a consensus out of the chaos.

Behind the scenes, Washington has been quietly nudging some of Haiti’s politicians amid rising concerns that if Haiti’s political forces cannot quickly reach a consensus, the increasingly powerful gangs could emerge as the arbiter of the country’s future.

The March 9 proposal endorsed by the Montana Accord, which has the backing of several high-profile figures and of the Biden administration, includes the creation of a five-member council to lead a transition toward elections. The proposal says the members of that council have to meet certain requirements: Never having been charged with a criminal offense or sanctions for fraud or corruption, and never having supported or incited violence.

Given the competing proposals and the inability of Haitians to decide on one path forward, a supporter of the March 9 proposal said he believes that “at the end of the day, it will be up to the international community to do something.”

The U.S., Canada and others have insisted on a Haitian-led solution. But it’s unclear if such a solution is possible, given the philosophical differences and distrust.

Claude Joseph, a former prime minister and foreign minister under President Jovenel Moïse, said what emerges should be led by Haitians and any transition needs to be inclusive. He is proposing a seven-member presidential panel with representation from members of various alliances, Montana Accord/ Fanmi Lavalas and a group headed by the prime minister known as the December 21 Accord, which is currently left out of the March 9 Montana proposal. There is also a seat for Petit Dessalines, the political party of former senator and presidential candidate Jean Charles Moïse. Also known as Moïse Jean-Charles, the politician has created an alliance with Philippe, who is being backed by his party to lead a presidential transition.

“Ours is a very inclusive proposal,” said Joseph, who heads Engagés pour le développement, EDE, Committed to Development party. ”If the proposal is as inclusive as possible, it may stop the violence. But it cannot be a small group of people without popular support. However, we should not reward gang leaders. The gangs are strong because the state is weak.”

Gangs have demanded Henry’s resignation and threatened civil war if he doesn’t step down. So far, Henry, who is in Puerto Rico and has been unable to return to Haiti, has not offered his resignation and it remains unclear if he will go to Jamaica. The U.S. has urged Henry to step down.

Members of the December 21 coalition Henry leads say they are willing to compromise and have called on the international community to assist Henry with returning to Haiti. They have offered two different proposals to CARICOM, said lawyer and political leader Andre Michel. If agreement can’t be reached on a presidential college, then the head of the Supreme Court should be installed as president, he said.

Among the Caribbean leaders who flew to Jamaica for the meeting is Ralph Gonsalves, the prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Gonsalves said it is ultimately up to the Haitians to decide what their path forward will be. CARICOM is just a facilitator of the conversations. But it is unclear how the international community will agree on one plan, given the philosophical differences over how to deal with the gangs and opposition groups, and the overall lack of trust parties harbor toward one another.

“I don’t think anybody thinks there’s going to be a silver bullet. It’s a complicated situation; very complicated,” Gonsalves said after arriving in Kingston on Sunday. “But the political dimension is one important one and the security also. They have to go in tandem, and there’s the humanitarian and developmental needs.”

The divisions among the spectrum of Haiti’s political forces have made reaching a consensus difficult, Gonsalves said, adding that the country’s dire reality under Henry can’t be ignored. The U.N. documented 8,400 victims of gang violence last year — a 122% rise from 2022 — and the number of gangs has grown.

Some Caribbean leaders have suggested that Haitians should negotiate with the gangs, and others have asked whether there is a role for Philippe — a line of conversation that some diplomats familiar with Haiti find troubling.

“If it is true that gangs control 80% of the capital city, surely it is common sense that you should have some conversation with them,” said Gonsalves, who added he is not advocating that approach. “Where that conversation would lead is a different story. But you think it makes sense to not talk to the people who can control 80% of the city?”

The reality is complex. Despite the gangs’ united front of late, they are not truly unified, several Haitians observers say, predicting the leaders will soon be fighting one another for territory.

The groups pushing different versions of an accord admit that even if they were to come together, there is no guarantee that a political agreement will make a dent in the security crisis. For that to happen, a political leader backing one of the March 9 proposal said, the U.S. would need to provide muscle — in the form of troops.

“Whatever we sign for, there needs to be a force to make it happen,” he said. “That is the only thing the gangs are afraid of is, U.S. troops.”