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Green Bay Packers playoff outlook: Who they might face, tiebreaking scenarios and more

jr radcliffe, milwaukee journal sentinel
·8 min read
2

The Green Bay Packers were off last weekend, but the other major players for the top seed in the NFC playoffs all won, setting up a nail-biting final five weeks of the season for the one and only bye in the conference.

If the season ended today, the Packers would be the No. 2 seed, which came attached with a first-round bye prior to last season. But with expanded playoffs, the Packers would need to play on the opening weekend against the seventh seed in the NFC. Here's what's left to watch for in the tiebreaker race.

San Francisco defensive end Nick Bosa tackles Green Bay running back Aaron Jones.
San Francisco defensive end Nick Bosa tackles Green Bay running back Aaron Jones.

If the season ended today, who would the Packers face in the playoffs?

Green Bay would hold the No. 2 seed and meet San Francisco (6-6) in a rematch from a tense 30-28 Packers win earlier this season.

What are the odds Mike McCarthy winds up coaching a playoff game at Lambeau?

Mike McCarthy could return to Lambeau Field this season under certain playoff scenarios.
Mike McCarthy could return to Lambeau Field this season under certain playoff scenarios.

If the season ended today, Dallas would hold the No. 4 seed, and the No. 2 Packers would host Dallas if both teams won twice and reached the NFC championship game. Or, the No. 6 seed could upset the No. 3 and leave Dallas and Green Bay to face each other in the divisional round. That would be quite the to-do.

If the Packers get the No. 1 and Dallas remains locked in at 4, the meeting could also come in the divisional round, but only if the top seeds prevail in the other two games.

Dallas sits one game back of the Packers but does hold a tiebreaking edge in that only one of its losses have been to an NFC team (the Packers have suffered two such losses). Thus, if the Packers lost again and Dallas won out, the Cowboys would get the head-to-head edge on the tiebreaker of conference record. Perhaps a playoff battle in Dallas instead? Green Bay has ... some postseason success there.

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When can the Packers clinch a playoff spot?

When Minnesota beat Pittsburgh on Thursday, it took away Green Bay's opportunity to clinch this weekend. Green Bay's magic number for the division title is two; any combination of Packers wins or Vikings losses adding up to two will do the trick. That's currently the most direct route to the playoffs, and it can happen as soon as next weekend.

Among the top teams, who's got the easiest schedule going forward?

Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers players attempt to catch a Hail Mary pass at the end of the first half at State Farm Stadium.
Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers players attempt to catch a Hail Mary pass at the end of the first half at State Farm Stadium.

It's pretty close between the Packers and Buccaneers, though perhaps Green Bay holds a slight edge. Here's a look:

Arizona Cardinals (current No. 1 seed, 10-2)

  • vs. Los Angeles Rams (8-4)

  • at Detroit (1-10-1)

  • vs. Indianapolis (7-6)

  • at Dallas (8-4)

  • vs. Seattle (4-8)

The Packers own the head-to-head tiebreaker with Arizona, and the Cardinals have some toughies left on the calendar. But even if the Packers win out, the Cardinals will need to lose once more. Two of the team's three toughest remaining games (Rams and Colts) are at home, with a battle vs. Dallas on the road.

Green Bay Packers (current No. 2 seed, 9-3)

  • vs. Chicago (4-8)

  • at Baltimore (8-4)

  • vs. Cleveland (6-6)

  • vs. Minnesota (6-7)

  • at Detroit (1-10-1)

It's pretty clear the toughest battle on the docket remaining for Green Bay is the game in Baltimore in two weeks. But it's easy to imagine the Packers sweeping these and securing no worse than the No. 2 seed ... or tripping up at least once, because divisional foes always gum things up.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (current No. 3 seed, 9-3)

  • vs. Buffalo (7-5)

  • vs. New Orleans (5-7)

  • at Carolina (5-7)

  • at New York Jets (3-9)

  • vs. Carolina (5-7)

At the moment, the Bucs have taken all three of their losses in the NFC (Green Bay has taken two of three), and that tiebreaker gives the Packers an edge for now. But this is the easiest remaining schedule among the top contenders besides the Packers, and like Green Bay, the toughest remaining foe is an AFC squad (and in this case, a home game against Buffalo). Even if Tampa loses a game, the Packers aren't assured to stay ahead.

Dallas Cowboys (current No. 4 seed, 8-4)

  • at Washington (6-6)

  • at New York Giants (4-8)

  • vs. Washington (6-6)

  • vs. Arizona (10-2)

  • at Philadelphia (6-7)

The Cowboys are leading the East by two games and currently own the No. 4 seed, but the Cowboys have lost only one NFC game and could easily slide past the Packers if Green Bay loses. If the Packers win out and Arizona loses, though, and Dallas stays here at No. 4, suddenly we're looking at a possible division-round meeting at Lambeau Field between the Packers and their former coach, Mike McCarthy (barring any NFC playoff upsets). It could be Dallas itself that hands Arizona the loss, on Jan. 2.

Packers tight end Josiah Deguara reacts after earning a first down against the Rams at Lambeau Field.
Packers tight end Josiah Deguara reacts after earning a first down against the Rams at Lambeau Field.

Los Angeles Rams (current No. 5 seed, 8-4)

  • at Arizona (10-2)

  • vs. Seattle (4-8)

  • at Minnesota (6-7)

  • at Baltimore (8-4)

  • vs. San Francisco (6-6)

The top wild-card team is two games behind Arizona for the West title, and the Packers have a head-to-head tiebreaker, so it's unlikely the Rams finish seeded ahead of the Packers (barring a collapse from both Arizona and the Packers). Green Bay fans can actively cheer for the Rams to topple Arizona in their Monday night game.

What if there's a three-way or four-way tie?

Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady shakes hands with Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers after a game last season.
Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady shakes hands with Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers after a game last season.

These tiebreakers are a little hard to forecast because they often depend on which losses a team will take.

If Green Bay ties with Arizona and Tampa Bay, because Arizona loses once more and Green Bay and Tampa Bay win out, the Packers will get the top seed. Tampa Bay would be guaranteed a lesser NFC conference record than the other two and would drop from the equation, and Green Bay would then bypass Arizona head-to-head.

If Green Bay ties with Arizona, Tampa Bay and Dallas, because Arizona lost twice, Green Bay and Tampa Bay lost once and Dallas won out, Dallas is going to wind up with the top seed (because it has only one NFC loss thus far, and everyone else has at least two). The Packers could still be second, but that would depend on which loss Green Bay takes going forward (preferably an AFC loss, Baltimore or Cleveland). If it's an AFC loss, the Packers would still be guaranteed a better NFC record than Tampa Bay, which would shed out of the equation in the remaining three-way battle for No. 2, and Green Bay would finish ahead of Arizona on head-to-head for the tiebreaker.

Who are the potential Nos. 6 and 7 seeds that the Packers might face in the first round?

Green Bay linebacker Rashan Gary attempts to sack Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke.
Green Bay linebacker Rashan Gary attempts to sack Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke.

Washington (6-6). The Packers defeated Washington earlier this year, 24-10, but the Football Team has won the four games since, albeit three by single digits. A 29-19 win over Tampa Bay is the most impressive of those victories. WFT currently holds the No. 6 seed, but it has a challenging road ahead, with two games left against Dallas and two against Philadelphia before a season closer in New York against the Giants.

San Francisco (6-6). Green Bay won on the road early in the season, 30-28, though the 49ers won four of their next five before losing to Seattle last week. If the season ended today, San Francisco would be headed to Lambeau Field for a first-round clash. The 49ers close the year against the Bengals (7-5), Falcons (5-7), Titans (8-4), Texans (2-10) and Rams (8-4).

Philadelphia (6-7). Without quarterback Jalen Hurts on Sunday, Philadelphia nonetheless secured a must-win over the Jets coming off a grisly loss to the Giants. The rest of the Eagles' losses (49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bucs, Raiders, Chargers) have come against playoff-worthy competition. The Eagles still have a pretty fair shot to get into the top seven.

Minnesota (6-7). The Vikings survived Thursday against Pittsburgh in a win it had to have, and the Vikings still see the Bears twice more this year, plus the Rams at home and Packers at Lambeau on Jan. 2. That's manageable, and we already know the Vikings have some firepower against the Packers.

The 5-7 teams. Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans can't be counted out, but none have a truly favorable schedule going forward (particularly Carolina).

JR Radcliffe can be reached at (262) 361-9141 or jradcliffe@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JRRadcliffe.

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Green Bay Packers NFL playoff scenarios, tiebreakers