Is tornado alley shifting into Ohio, greater Columbus area? Here's what you need to know

Thursday's storms may be the latest evidence that tornadoes are becoming as synonymous with mid-to-late winter as snow storms.

But does that mean Ohio and the greater Columbus area is now part of what is known as "Tornado Alley?"

At least eight tornadoes are believed to have touched down in Ohio on Thursday, according to the National Weather Service. Included in the latest series of twisters was an EF3 tornado that swept through the Indian Lake area of Logan County and is known to have killed at least three.

The trend has some asking what's going on and whether an infamous geographical section of the country may be shifting eastward and into Ohio.

A history of twisters: Search a database of tornadoes in Ohio since 1950

"Tornado alley" is a long swath of land that stretches over the great plains region of the U.S. and includes Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas. Some have speculated that tornado alley's eastward movement may mean portions of central Ohio are now part of the infamous area where twisters are thought to be more common.

Although Ohio had its fair share of twisters already this year, there's more to the data than meets the eye.

Here's what experts are saying about whether tornado alley now runs through Columbus:

How many tornadoes touched down in Ohio and the U.S. last year?

A total of 1,423 tornadoes are believed to have popped up across the United States in 2023, according to preliminary data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The majority of tornadoes occur in the spring in southern states and in the summer in northern states, although they can touch down any day of the year, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

At least 56 of those twisters touched down in Ohio in 2023 compared with 32 total in 2022, the NOAA reports.

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While Ohio's share of twisters may seem like a lot, the state's 56 tornadoes in 2023 still pale in comparison to Illinois' 136 twisters and Alabama's 101, data shows.

As of Sunday, at least 19 tornadoes were confirmed in Ohio so far in 2024, according to the NOAA. Nationwide, at least 136 have been confirmed in 2024 to date.

What does last year's high number of tornadoes mean?

In short, it's hard to say, said Jana Houser, associate professor of meteorology at Ohio State.

While the increased number of twisters is concerning, Houser said it's not necessarily a sign that tornado alley is moving eastward into Ohio.

That's due in part to the fact that the Columbus area may have a year or two in a row with a high number of tornadoes, but it's not every year, she said.

"As far as where we are specifically here in Ohio, there's not any statistically significant evidence to say we're seeing more of a frequency of tornadoes," Houser said. "What we are seeing is a greater degree of variability from year to year. Some years there's nothing and others it's more active."

The year-to-year differences are thought to likely related to climate change, though it's unclear, Houser and others said.

Is tornado alley moving at all then?

While the jury is still out as to whether tornado alley is moving into central Ohio, Houser said there is more evidence that it's shifting toward another part of the country.

Tornado alley has historically run through states such as Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. However, the southeastern United States is seeing far more outbreaks in recent years, Houser and Aaron Wilson, climatologist at the State Climate Office of Ohio and an assistant professor at Ohio State University. both said.

In fact, at least 200 of the 595 tornadoes, or 34% of ones that have touched down in 2023, occurred in the southeastern states of Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina and North Carolina, according to the NOAA.

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While more than a third of twisters in 2023 have occurred in the southeastern U.S., Wilson said it's important to approach the idea that tornado alley is moving with a bit of skepticism. More time must pass, and more research must be done to confirm any movement, Wilson said.

"We have to be really cautious, because there have been a lot of low numbers in recent years," he said about tornadoes. "There's more evidence in the Southeast, but I'm not sure yet that I would be confident in making that statement about the Ohio Valley."

If it's really unclear, where does this idea come from that tornado alley is moving?

The concept that tornado alley may be shifting eastward is an idea that's percolated for years, Wilson said. He joked that he's received something like 75 media requests on the topic this year alone.

What it comes down to is a reporting bias, Wilson said. People are more aware of dangerous storms and are therefore reporting far more suspected tornado sightings today than they were decades ago, he said.

That results in more investigations as to whether a twister touched down, and inevitably, more confirmed tornadoes, Wilson said.

"We detect and witness a lot more tornadoes today than we did in the 1950s," he said.

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Houser agreed, and said human bias is likely to blame for increased reports as everyone has a camera in their pocket and better access to technology to report tornadoes.

Tornadoes are measured for their size and intensity on something called the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with the weakest tornado being labeled an EF0 and the strongest being rated an EF5, according to the NWS.

The fact that there has been a surge in reports of EF0 and EF1 tornadoes shows that weaker ones are likely getting reported more often than they used to because they're getting noticed more, Houser said.

Along with more reports and observations, Houser said the narrative that tornado alley is moving is an interesting one that grabs everyone's attention.

"I think because we are creatures of the moment and we see an example like this year where we see tornadoes in Ohio early in the year, it sticks with us," she said. "It seems like it fits that narrative ... even if it doesn't"

Will climate change cause more twisters or changes to tornado alley?

While one year with more tornadoes may not have many long-term implications, it's believed that climate change is impacting twisters in some way, though it's hard to pinpoint, said Geddy Davis, program coordinator at the State Climate Office of Ohio

Although they can cause widespread destruction, Davis said tornadoes are considered a smaller, more isolated weather phenomenon than something like a hurricane. That makes it difficult, if not impossible, to link any one tornado to climate change, Davis said.

But it's clear that climate change is having an impact on the seasonality of tornadoes, Houser said.

Severe winter thunderstorms, which used to be fairly rare, are more common she said. That means there could be more opportunities for tornadoes to form, Houser said.

Tornadoes, she said, are "fickle" and require a lot of ingredients to come together, such as a thunderstorm, warm air near the earth's surface, cold air higher up in the atmosphere and high winds. Warmer winters may be bringing all those ingredients together more often and at different times than they used to though, she said.

"We're seeing these very volatile, high energy cold season storms," she said. "Those ones are really driving up the (tornado) count."

mfilby@dispatch.com

@MaxFilby

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Is the greater Columbus area in tornado alley? Here's what experts say