GOP strategist: This time is different for Joe Biden. He’s in trouble. | Opinion

This time is different for Joe Biden. He’s in trouble. The vote in Michigan last week and all the talk about Biden’s age make that clear.

During a recent episode of “Pod Save America,” Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau expressed concern that Biden’s age has become “a very real issue,” remarking that if you watch Biden speak, he “sounds more frail than he used to.”

“Frail” is one of those words you never want associated with your candidate, let alone describe the leader of the free world. Biden’s age and mental acuity have become a defining issue in his reelection campaign.

As the choir of Democrats sounding the alarm become louder, he faced an electoral embarrassment in Michigan. While he decisively won the state, Biden was beaten by the “uncommitted” vote in Dearborn and Hamtramck. “Uncommitted” received enough votes to pick up delegates to the Democratic convention.

Even non-political figures like Bob Costas have weighed in, suggesting that if party leaders recognize the potential to lose to Donald Trump, they should consider putting someone else forward. Costas perfectly summed up the problem by saying, “You don’t go into the Super Bowl with a quarterback with a dead arm.”

It’s too soon to tell if this is a calculated move to set the stage for Democrats to push Biden aside and move in Gavin Newsom at the convention, or just merely sounding the alarm before it gets too late. Regardless, signs of Biden’s political trouble are everywhere.

Age has never been a winning campaign issue. While stories about Biden wearing slip-resistant sneakers and using a shorter staircase to board Air Force One make for amusing memes, voters rarely kick someone out of office due to age. It’s why we see the average age in Congress getting older and members staying in office for decades.

Biden’s age will only become a major issue if he does something that genuinely scares voters — leading them to question his capacity to fulfill his duties as commander-in-chief. That’s why Biden’s staff is doing everything they can to protect him from unscripted moments.

The real concern for Biden lies in Michigan, a state that has favored Democrats in seven out of the last eight presidential elections. The Michigan results raise doubts about the strength of Biden’s coalition and the level of enthusiasm among critical Democratic voting groups — including minority voters, younger voters and progressives. Typically, this would not be a problem. Democrats could teach a master class on how to put away grudges and grievances to unify behind a nominee on Election Day.

This time is different. More than 100,000 Democratic primary voters in Michigan cast protest ballots over the president’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. While Biden can attempt to address concerns among Arab American voters in the state, his ability to end Israel’s response to the Hamas terror attacks are out of his control.

To further complicate Biden’s electoral math, “uncommitted” Democrats are only part of the problem he is facing. Black voters are increasingly leaving the Democratic Party as they begin to see the truth behind the false promises of victim-hood, the spread of crime in the cities, and the impact of Biden’s policies on their daily lives.

A January USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll highlighted the drop in Biden’s support among Black voters, plummeting to 63% from the estimated 87% he garnered nationwide in the 2020 presidential election. This should be particularly concerning in cities like Detroit, where 79% of the population is African American and Biden secured a staggering 94% of the vote. In 2020, Black voters carried Biden to victory in Michigan. Any significant decrease in 2024 puts the state’s 15 electoral votes up for grabs.

Bottom line: Biden is in trouble. He won Michigan in 2020 by 154,000 votes. If he fails to regain support of Black voters and “uncommitted” Democrats, Michigan could be the state that puts Trump over the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.

Matt Wylie is a Republican political strategist and analyst who lives on Hilton Head Island. He has worked on federal, state and local campaigns.