Glenn Zimmerman’s long-range summer weather outlook
Did you know that there are more heat-related fatalities each year than any other weather event? That’s a pretty astounding fact, knowing that tornadoes and hurricanes cause more damage. While hot and humid are the main descriptors of summer in St. Louis, recent summers have also included some wild weather, too.
Big storms and flash flood-causing rains. We have an evolving pattern in place across the United States, and eventually, we will be back in full La Niña mode. But while we continue to transition, we will be unsettled. A good example has been April and the first weeks of May. So, let’s dive into June, July, and August.
June
I think June starts out with some dry time; I think we may need it. The rain of the recent weeks has been a bit much, and we will finally get into a pattern that is mostly dry. The beginning of June is the beginning of the tropical season, and this year looks to be an active one, especially in the Gulf of Mexico.
That type of activity will have to be monitored closely as coastal storms make landfall. Rain chances for St. Louis will ramp back up during the second half of the month. Temperatures are normally pretty warm in June. Several days could be in the 90s, and we may see some triple-digit heat. I think this year is cooler than normal. Of course, that doesn’t mean cold; I just think that temperatures may average out a little below the bigger heat that we can have in June. And remember the cicada emergence — June will be prime time for the cicadas and their song. So, June will be loud!
Last year, June had a couple of bigger rain events but was generally a dry month. This year, the first half of the month is dry, followed by a more active pattern in the second half.
Temperatures started really warm last June — mostly in the 90s, with 14 days above 90 degrees. Temperatures will average near or a little below normal this June, with no big heat allowed to build.
July
July is normally when the big heat and humidity build. If we didn’t have a hot and humid July, would you think something was wrong? Don’t worry, we will have plenty of those days in July. We again watch the Gulf of Mexico for tropical systems. Sometimes they can stray into the bi-state area. But I think the way this global pattern is evolving; we will have some wet days and some storms without the help of the tropics.
Our recent rainy and stormy trends could re-emerge in July, especially during the second half of the month. There are many outside events in the month, like ball games, weddings, and such, so we will need to watch the skies. And with that rain trend, those temperatures will be held down a bit. Still warm, but there is going to be very little chance that temperatures get into the 100-degree range.
July last year finished with above-normal rainfall, including a big rain on July 1. This year, July looks active, with rain and storms focused on the second half of the month.
Last year, July was hot, with many days in the 90s and two triple-digit days late in the month. This year, rain and storm chances should keep the temperature down a bit.
August
I think this August is going to be different than you expected. You generally expect a stretch of days that are 90 degrees plus — and even some triple-digit heat. These heat waves can be stifling and can last for a couple weeks. But this year may be a little different. With an active hurricane season starting to ramp up by August, we will have plenty of motion in the atmosphere to “keep the wheels moving.” There are no stuck weather patterns, which means the heat will not be allowed to build up into a stuck pattern of heat. With that said, it will be a cooler than normal month.
August last year had normal or average rainfall. This year, rain and storms will be an off-and-on threat; no long, dry stretches.
Temperatures were the big story last August, with a hot second half and three more triple-digit days, including 104 degrees on August 25, which was a record.
With an active pattern this year, temperatures will stay near or a little below normal with no big heat stretches.
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