General election 2024: Why Rishi Sunak chose July 4

Rishi Sunak has announced that 4 July is the general election date but why did he settle for that date?

The practical reason for his decision comes with election law and the parliamentary timetable. Parliament needs to be dissolved 25 working days before the date of an election which means that if he wanted a summer election he had limited options.

By calling an election on 4 July, next week’s planned recess will be cancelled giving parliament a “wash up week” to complete its remaining business by Thursday. Parliament can then be dissolved in time for a July 4 election. This meant the prime minister could not have called it any earlier.

He was also hamstrung by school holiday dates. In Scotland, schools go on holiday on Friday, 5 July and in England the same date applies for many private schools. This meant that the latest a summer election could be held was on 4 July or else there was a danger many voters would be away and may not arrange postal ballots.

The absence of private school pupils’ parents would be particularly damaging for the Tories as they struggle to hold on to many of their seats.

There had been a faction in Downing Street who wanted an autumn election, the desire of most of the parliamentary Tory party as well.

However, it seems that Mr Sunak has been warned the economic data is not expected to get much better. He has had a victory on Wednesday with inflation falling to 2.3 percent but there appears to be little or no flexibility to have an autumn budget to offer tax cuts.

The other big issue in play is illegal migration, important for many Tory MPs defending red wall seats. The prospect of a summer of small boats crossing despite flights to Rwanda going ahead would show the policy had not worked in the minds of many voters.

Failure to stop the boats, as Mr Sunak promised in his five pledges has become emblematic of the divisions in his own party and the incompetence of his government.

The prime minister is gambling that with the first flights leaving, voters may be persuaded that the policy is going to work.

The final reason is a lesson from history. As John Major discovered in 1997 and Gordon Brown in 2010 found out leaving an election to the last minute generally makes things even worse for an unpopular incumbent government.

Mr Sunak is banking that this final piece of audacity may be enough for voters to take a closer look at Labour rather than the civil war in his own party.

Whatever the reasons though, the decision will go down as one of the great gambles in modern British politics.