Is Gavin Newsom losing political momentum as debate with Ron DeSantis nears?

Gavin Newsom is still a rising political star, but his path to national prominence has gotten rocky as he heads into his debate with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis next Thursday.

His approval rating has sunk. He faces questions about his trip to China and the collapse of a major freeway in downtown Los Angeles. He angered longtime labor supporters by vetoing two bills they wanted, including one that would have provided strike benefits to jobless workers.

When the idea of a Newsom-DeSantis debate was floated earlier this year, it promised an unfiltered look at two political up-and-comers who may someday compete for the presidency. It still has that potential, but the stars are not as bright.

The two governors will meet for 90 minutes Nov. 30 on Fox News Channel, with commentator Sean Hannity moderating. Fox is calling it “The Great Red vs. Blue State Debate.”

“Gavin Newsom is taking a risk by doing this debate. He is facing questions about if his focus is on Californians or if his focus is on his national ambitions,” said Christian Grose, academic director of the University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute

While too much emphasis on national politics could mean “great risk” for Newsom, Grose said, the governor “can score a victory at home with Californians” if he emphasizes the state’s growth, tolerance and diversity.

Newsom’s camp was optimistic about the debate.

“Governor Newsom is thrilled to debate Ron DeSantis and expose DeSantis’ weakness as a leader and candidate. The fact he even accepted Gov. Newsom’s year-old debate challenge shows just how desperate he is to distract from his own flailing campaign,” said Newsom consultant Nathan Click..

The race for president

DeSantis’ presidential concerns are more immediate. The governor, 45, is seeking the Republican nomination and is struggling to even stay in a distant second behind former President Donald Trump. Despite a series of nationally televised Republican debates this summer and fall, his poll numbers have been static..

Newsom, 56, is looking ahead. He sees a Democratic Party eager for aggressive, center-left leadership. Though he says he’s not interested in a White House run next year, the Democratic Party lacks a consensus front runner for 2028 or even next year should President Joe Biden step aside.

In recent months he has made all the moves of a presidential contender, setting up a sophisticated fundraising operation, traveling to Israel and China, barnstorming through red Southern states to meet with Democrats and donating to campaigns.

But unlike U.S. senators or House members, governors are uniquely responsible if things go wrong at home, and can be uniquely vulnerable if voters feel they’re not focused on state business. And some things have gone wrong for Newsom.

“Newsom’s vanity play to get national attention isn’t playing well at home,” said Steve Maviglio, a Sacramento Democratic consultant.

Newsom’s approval sinks

Through most of his six years as governor, Newsom has been generally viewed positively by Californians. Not anymore.

The latest Berkeley-IGS statewide poll October 24-30 found 49% disapproved of the job he’s doing and 44% approved. It surveyed 6,342 registered voters. Margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of 1,000 registered voters, conducted Nov. 11-14, had Newsom’s approval at 46% and disapproval at 40%. Margin of error is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points..

Click, Newsom’s consultant, cited a late August/early September poll by the Public Policy Institute of California that showed Newsom with a 56% approval rating among likely voters. PPIC surveyed 1,146 likely voters. Margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.7%. Last month, the PPIC approval rating was 54%.

Emerson this month found one-third of voters gave Newsom an F on his handling of the homeless issue and 14% a D. One-fourth rated him a C and 28% an A or B.

Fifty-seven percent gave a Newsom a D or an F for his handling of the cost of living. Twenty-one percent rated his performance as a C, 12% said B and 10% A.

“The dip in Newsom’s approval suggests that many Californians are concerned with how things are going in the state,which may give the governor less leeway to fully engage on the national stage,” said Eric Schickler, co-director of Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. The poll said the decline in Newsom’s popularity was “broad based.”

Newsom visited Israel and China last month. His trip to China was widely scorned by conservatives and drew questions from human rights activists about the focus on environmental cooperation, economic development and tourism.

Fifty percent approved of the trip while 39% disapproved in the Berkeley poll.

While many Chinese cities have some of the world’s worst air pollution, Newsom said California could learn a lot, citing that country’s drive to build more electric vehicles and extensive use of offshore wind. His office said he did bring up China’s human rights violations and anti-democratic policies.

Newsom and controversy

Newsom has also had a rocky autumn back home. Labor applauded his signing of legislation in September creating a minimum wage for fast food workers.

But he angered unions, who have long been loyal, deep-pocket supporters, when he vetoed a bill that would have paid state unemployment benefits to workers on strike for at least two weeks.

He said the bill was too costly. Hollywood writers and actors were mired in months-long strikes that were settled recently.

Newsom also rejected a labor-friendly bill that would have extended workplace safety policies to domestic workers such as housekeepers.

This month, Newsom has faced questions about a Nov. 11 fire that caused the collapse of a heavily-traveled section of Interstate 10 in downtown Los Angeles.

The highway reopened Sunday night, far sooner than expected, after a round-the-clock effort to get it repaired. When he announced the completion of work, Newsom declared “It’s about government getting things done.”

But questions remain about whether the state had done enough to control the risk. The Los Angeles Times reported the fire was driven by wood pallets stored under the freeway. The land, it said, was leased by Caltrans to a private company that subleased it to other businesses.

The highway, the China trip, public concern about homelessness, the economy and the vetoes are not unusual matters for a governor to tackle. But Newsom is under a different sort of scrutiny because he’s being viewed as a national figure. And events back home are often out of his control.

As a result, “I guess I see more downside risk although given how Newsom is trying to build a bigger political brand nationally,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political analysis group.

DeSantis is likely to pound away at the controversies, raising the question of whether Newsom will look resolute in his well-practiced defenses or taken aback.

“I can see the attraction in doing this event. In some ways it allows him to be a presidential candidate for a night without actually being a presidential candidate,” said Kondik. But given the recent turmoil, the risk is there.

“Whether it’s Newsom or Biden, voters want elected officials to focus on what matters to them,” said Maviglio.