Former Hedge Funder’s Fearful Forecast: We‘re Looking at ’The Biggest Economic Shock the World Has Ever Seen’ & There’s Nothing We Can Do to Stop It

Becket Adams
June 2, 2012
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Former co-manager of the GLG Global Macro Fund Raoul Pal has joined the growing chorus of economists who believe the global economy is headed in the absolute wrong direction.

What does the Goldman Sachs alumnus see on the horizon?

Mr. Pal, who writes for The Global Macro Investor, a research publication intended only for larger institutions, hedge funds, and family offices, believes that a global banking collapse and massive defaults will bring about “the biggest economic shock the world has ever seen” — and there’s nothing we can do to stop it.

Well, that’s pretty dire. Does he have anything to back up his claims?

We’re glad you asked. Without further explanation, here is “The End Game,” Pal’s impressively comprehensive (and grim) presentation on the current state of the global economy:

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The End Game

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The world has no engine of growth

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First recession since 1930's

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Per Capita Durable Goods Orders

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Percentage of U.S. population employed

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U.K. industrial production

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EU Industrial output

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U.S. GDP since 1802

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Weakest foundations to enter a recession on

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Total debt to GDP ratio by country

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Series of defaults

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All fall down

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No. of defaults by crisis period

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Defaults across the board

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End of world?

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The end of Europe?

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The end of finance?

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A collapse in world trade?

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Eye of the storm

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Connect the dots

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Weak foundations

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The big reset

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Biggest econ shock the world has ever seen

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Nationalization of banks

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The whole bond market will be dead

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Closure of the banking system

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Around 6 months left

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Going back in time

(H/T: BI)

Author’s note: The final slide in the presentation isn‘t saying that we’ll revert to the economic activity of  3000 years ago. Rather, it is a reference to trade links between nations along the Indian Ocean that are thousands of years old. Pal believes this is where the opportunity is. Why? Because they have ”low debts, high savings and a young population,” as Business Insider points out.

Thanks to Pal for letting us post his material.

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