Forgotten Winter: What questions farmers have about its effect on next season
CHATHAM, Mich. (WJMN) — The “Winter That Wasn’t” has farmers and agriculture researchers guessing about what early, warm temperatures means for their next crop.
While no winter is ever the same, winters in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan are often known to be harsh, cold, and one of the snowiest places in the nation.
When these seemingly typical weather patterns shift and change, it can have a significant impact on agriculture.
“We live and die by the weather in farming, and there’s always an element of unpredictability. But we’re seeing that it’s becoming less predictable and more variable. And that adds risk for farmers,” said James DeDecker, director of Michigan State University’s Upper Peninsula Research and Extension Center (MSU UPREC).
MSU UPREC has been tracking weather patterns at its location in Chatham for 125 years.
“We’ve seen that in this year certainly was a lower snowfall year here in Chatham as compared to the last 20 or 30 years,” said DeDecker. “So, for, you know, the last few decades, we’ve averaged 175 or so inches of snow here. This year we had about 90 inches of snow. So that was a lower amount overall. And we have seen a sort of downward trend in snowfall in the last few decades.”
How does this impact agriculture today?
“We usually rely on that snowpack, on snowmelt in the spring to provide a lot of our early season water to feed the crops that we’re planting or the perennial crops that are already out there. And so, coming into the spring, the Upper Peninsula was anywhere from D2 to D0 drought levels. And so, starting off the growing season in a drought scenario is obviously a challenge potentially,” said DeDecker.
“The other thing we wonder about is sort of yet to be seen, is what a light winter will mean for pests and diseases coming into the growing season. So that could be, you know, insects that maybe survive the winter that wouldn’t normally or diseases, disease, inoculum in the soil or on crop residue that maybe survived the winter better than it would have weather with more harsh conditions.”
DeDecker said that could mean insects or other pests showing up earlier or greater in number—and potentially doing more damage to crops.
Olivia Kingery, the owner of Pileated Farms in Chatham, says she’s already seeing the effects of the mild winter on her crops.
“It’s definitely going to have an impact, especially for the perennial crops like fruit trees, asparagus, leeks, those types of things. They’re already starting to poke out which is this, you know, mid April, that’s, it’s kind of okay, but it’s won’t be our last cold spell. We’ll probably have snow again. We should we need it. So it’s just going to be about if those blooms get damaged, if it pushes it back, some can recover and some can’t. So it’ll be about if crops can take the hit or if they can’t.”
While a mild winter may have its negatives, there are some positives, too.
“There certainly are some upsides to a late winter. One aspect would be maintaining our livestock. So, we have beef cattle here at the farm with a lighter winter. That means they may have to eat less or drink less to maintain their body condition throughout the winter. And so, a light winter is generally, I would say, a benefit to our livestock production system,” said DeDecker.
DeDecker also adds that another positive is a two to three week increase in a frost-free growing period.
“It’ll be a tradeoff. Right. We’ll see some opportunities for greater crop diversity, longer growing season, maybe higher yields, certain crops will even benefit from increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Other ones will suffer. The real risk, I think, comes in that that unpredictability or the variability from one month or one year to the next and how we’re going to be able to adapt to that and adjust,” said DeDecker.
To learn more, check out MSU UPREC‘s website.
Read the rest of the stories from our Forgotten Winter special report:
WATCH: The Forgotten Winter Full Episode
Forgotten Winter: Wildlife’s winners and losers of the season
Forgotten Winter: Science behind the record-breaking weather
Forgotten Winter: Tourism experts on future of travel as winters wane
Forgotten Winter: How local tourism survived the warm winter
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