FORECAST: Storm potential for the Big Country; peak at Easter forecast
ABILENE, Texas (BCH Weather) – The main concern in the short-term forecast is the potential for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our eastern counties, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible.
The Storm Prediction Center has extended the marginal threat for severe storms a bit more to the west, including parts of Abilene. Storm development remains conditional, meaning storms will develop under the right conditions.
An upper-level trough is forecast to track across the region today. Although there is a lack of low-level moisture, the approaching trough should provide enough upper-level lift to generate isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
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Some good news is that the latest model runs are not very confident in the development of storms. Activity this afternoon is expected to be isolated at best, and storms don’t appear well-organized.
However, if storms develop, large hail is the primary concern, but strong gusty winds are also possible. This activity will quickly exit the region by early evening.
After the storms clear out, a weak cold front will push through the area Wednesday evening. Overnight lows will be below seasonal averages, in the mid-30s to lower 40s. Some colder readings are possible in low-lying areas and river valleys.
Increasing cloud cover in our eastern counties toward daybreak should keep lows a few degrees warmer compared to our western counties. Speaking of warmer temperatures, they are returning soon.
A pattern shift is expected to start on Thursday as a broad upper-level ridge will take over the southern plains. This should allow for warm, southerly flow to resume at the surface.
Highs should climb up to the upper 70s and low 80s on Thursday and Friday as a warmer airmass is introduced into west Texas.
A southwesterly low-level jet should develop late Thursday night into Friday morning. As a result, Friday winds could be 20-30 miles per hour, with stronger gusts possible, especially at higher elevations.
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Looking ahead to Easter weekend, temperatures should push into the upper 80s to near 90s with mainly dry conditions. Breezy conditions will continue through the weekend into next week.
There is a slight chance (20%) of showers and storms Sunday evening. Models show a deep trough moving into the Desert Southwest on Monday and into Tuesday, which could be the next best chance for rain and thunderstorms.
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