Forecast says Great Salt Lake could rise 1.2 feet this spring — but a lot of factors could impact it
SALT LAKE CITY (ABC4) — Following back-to-back years of healthy snowpack, the scientists who monitor Utah’s snow and downstream flows are cautiously estimating that the Great Salt Lake’s water levels could rise around 1.2 feet this spring.
In its March monthly report, the Utah Snow Survey said that the Great Salt Lake could see 870,000 acre-feet of water entering the lake between April and July. This could boost elevation in the struggling lake by more than a foot, although this forecast could be impacted by a number of factors.
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Jordan Clayton, supervisor of the Utah Snow Survey, said that the 870,000 acre-feet figure is the middle value in a range of possible outcomes. He described it to ABC4 as a conservative figure.
“If I had to guess, I’d guess that the 870,000 [acre-feet] figure is going to be a low number,” he said. “It could be a lot less than that, it could be a lot more.”
Looking at the spread of possible outcomes in the Utah Snow Survey report, the highest figure listed is roughly double the middle number — or 1.5 million acre-feet of water entering the lake. The low-end figure is 485,000 acre-feet of water flowing into Great Salt Lake.
This is the first year that the Utah Snow Survey is forecasting inflows into the Great Salt Lake. The information is meant to help water managers make critical decisions, but Clayton says that there’s “substantial” uncertainty surrounding these forecasts.
The uncertainty stems from Utah Snow Survey not being able to take into account water management actions upstream, such as withdrawals and diversions for reservoir storage. The model also assumes the weather this spring will be normal for this time of year. Any major storm or dry spell could have major impacts.
Additionally, there’s also uncertainty in the lake level rise prediction, as Clayton notes it is greatly affected by management of the berm that separates the northern and southern arms of the Great Salt Lake.
Healthy snowpack, fuller reservoirs
Last winter left Utah with a record snowpack, and this year, the three major watersheds that empty into the Great Salt Lake are again seeing above average snowpack. These major basins are the Jordan River, the Weber River, and the Bear River.
“One of the things we are seeing is that the reservoirs in those basins are a lot more full than they were last year at this time,” Clayton said.
Across the state, reservoirs are sitting around 82% full, that’s up from 52% full this time last year. As Clayton explained it, since there isn’t so much reservoir space to fill up this spring, there’s hope more water makes its way downstream and into the Great Salt Lake.
“We’ve really done a lot or replenish our reservoir supply because of last year’s runoff conditions and how good they were,” he said. “We also did a good job as a state conserving water so that less water was removed from those reservoirs. What that means for the Great Salt Lake is that a much larger percentage of the snow that we have right now will be able to make it to the Great Salt Lake downstream.”
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