Flooding, Strong Storms Possible Tuesday, But Still Some Uncertainty

DOTHAN, Ala. (WDHN) — A cold front will bring in a line of showers and storms to the area beginning Tuesday morning, bringing the potential for localized flooding and strong-to-severe storms.

Ahead of the front on Monday, our cloud cover will increase, and we’ll warm into the 70s. Lows will drop only to the 60s before the threat for strong storms and flooding arrives.

But, several variables make this forecast tricky.

What is known is that there is a level two (slight) risk of flash flooding and a level one (marginal) risk of severe weather.

There should be a strong-enough low-level jet to support sufficient wind shear. Surface heating should also be present.

But, there may not be enough instability to help storms grow and strengthen. The level of instability hinges on how far inland warmer, moister air can advect inland before the main line arrives.

If the instability is low, the line may be broken when it arrives, reducing the chance for any flooding or severe storms. If it holds, the flooding and severe threat will be higher.

The severe threat will be Tuesday midday and afternoon. The flooding threat will continue through the evening hours.

The main hazards will be damaging winds up to 60 miles per hour and rainfall totals of one to three inches.

Some showers and storms may “train,” or move over the same area. This can lead to isolated totals of four inches or more.

Rain may linger into Wednesday, but drier and cooler conditions come in Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s. Lows will be in the 40s Friday and Saturday, but we will gradually warm up. By Sunday, we will approach the 80s.

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