FIU poll: Most Miami Cuban Americans support Trump policies and will vote to reelect him
A majority of Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, health and Cuba policy, and will vote for him in the upcoming November elections, according to the latest edition of the Cuba poll from Florida International University.
Fifty-nine percent of Cuban-Americans interviewed said they would vote to reelect Trump. Only 25 percent said they would vote for Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
The telephone survey, which was released on Friday, included 1,002 participants who were interviewed between July 7 and Aug. 17. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The results indicate that the majority of Cuban-American voters support the administration’s policies toward Cuba on issues such as maintaining the embargo (54%), the sanctions campaign to force a regime change on the island (68%), and the elimination of cruise ships (55%).
There is only one issue Cuban Americans disagree on with Trump’s Cuba policies: immigration. Fifty-eight percent of respondents oppose the suspension of visa issuing at the U.S. Embassy in Havana and the family reunification program.
The study, carried out by FIU every two years since the 1990s, also shows the paradoxes and mixed views in the community. For example, although the majority favors maintaining the embargo, 66 percent of those surveyed also believe that it has not worked or has not worked very well. And 57 percent support suspending the sanctions during the coronavirus pandemic.
The contrasting opinions regarding Cuba policy, from support of engagement policies under President Barack Obama to the strong backing of Trump’s hardline measures, suggest “Cubans are just part of American politics and follow the leadership in issues that relate to them,” said Guillermo Grenier, the study’s director and head of FIU’s Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies.
Despite the popularity of Trump’s policies, the study shows that the Cuban American community also supports some of Obama’s measures, such as maintaining diplomatic relations with Cuba and implementing policies supporting the Cuban people. But in general, Cuba policy is not a priority issue for Cuban American voters, with the economy and healthcare topping the list.
“It is not surprising that the poll measures a certain amount of ambivalence in the population,” Grenier said. “Most Cubans desire change in Cuba and in the U.S. Cuba policy. They are unclear, even after 60 years of experience, whether isolation or engagement will bring about change, so they are leaving the door open to more engagement while signaling that, perhaps due to the leadership provided by Trump and his administration, they are willing to give isolation policies their support. Still, both tendencies are evident in the community.”
Recent arrivals become Republicans
The biggest surprise in the results is the inroads the Republican Party has made in the community, especially among Cubans who recently arrived in the country, Grenier said. Seventy-six percent of those surveyed who came to the U.S. between 2010 and 2015 said they are Republicans.
Possible explanations for such Republican “rejuvenation” are the party’s and the Trump administration’s strong presence in Miami-Dade, Grenier said. “It is a natural attraction for those people who come and want to feel part of the community, who want to feel empowered. Historically, the Republican Party has been better at talking to Cubans than the Democratic Party. “
But attitudes towards the Cuban government might also be at work in recent arrivals’ strong support for hard-line policies and the GOP more generally. The trend had been picked up in a 2019 survey by Democratic pollster Equis Research.
“Those who arrived between 2010 to 2015 aren’t batistianos. They are a direct product of the Revolution. The Cuban government’s policies and resistance to reforms continue to create generational waves of opposition,” said Ric Herrero, the Cuba Study Group’s executive director. “But instead of granting them representation at home, the system casts its aggrieved citizens off to Florida, where they do vote.”
The results confirm the trend of strong support for Trump among Cuban Americans, which previous surveys had found. Cuban Americans make up the base of the Republican Party in Miami-Dade and the majority of registered Hispanic voters in the county, so their vote could make a difference in one of the nation’s top swing states.
And the survey shows the gains made by Trump since 2016, when he won an estimated 54 percent of the Cuban American vote. Support for the president is so strong in the community that Miami-Dade Cuban Americans have become the country’s outliers, even giving high approval to his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Forty-one percent of the respondents said they “strongly support” and 22 percent said they “somewhat support” Trump’s response to the COVID-19 crisis. Only Democrats, those who were born in the U.S., and independents voiced opposition.
Follow Nora Gámez Torres on Twitter: @ngameztorres
