What the first College Football Playoff rankings mean for Penn State moving forward
Penn State came in slightly lower than anticipated in the first College Football Playoff rankings at No. 11, two spots lower than its AP Poll ranking this week.
Here’s everything you need to know about the Nittany Lions’ ranking and what it impacts moving forward.
More hurdles to overcome
Penn State being outside the top 10 means there are now more teams it has to clear in order to secure the type of bowl it was expected to be in at the beginning of the season. That means either a College Football Playoff bid or a berth into a New Year’s Six bowl game. There are a few teams in front of the Nittany Lions that are in better position to go undefeated. Both Oklahoma and Alabama are primed to win out and would then not face a major challenge until their respective conference championship games. If that’s the case, it could be difficult for Penn State to pass them, leaving their status in the postseason in limbo. There is a real possibility now that the Nittany Lions will look back on this season and be able to point to the Ohio State loss as the reason they did not achieve their goals.
It all comes down to Michigan
With all of that being said, defeating Michigan on Nov. 11 can turn this thing on its head for Penn State. The committee ranked the Wolverines at No. 3, ahead of two other undefeated Power-5 teams in Washington and Florida State, showing the value a win would provide for the Nittany Lions. Frankly, winning that game would give them arguably the best win in the country and would vault them into the top seven range, bringing everything back onto the table. Because, at that point, a Michigan win over Ohio State would give the Nittany Lions a chance to make the Big Ten Championship game and then everything is available again. Winning over Michigan would almost guarantee a New Year’s Six bid, too, which is important because...
New Year’s Six in doubt
Right now the Nittany Lions don’t look like they’ll be in a New Year’s Six bowl, even if they finish 10-2 with losses to only Ohio State and Michigan. A win over Maryland isn’t likely to push Penn State up in the rankings, and following it with a second loss — against the only two ranked teams they have on the schedule — is going to knock the team down a few spots. Chaos can always happen near the top of the rankings, which could help Penn State, but right now it isn’t lined up to be in one of the New Year’s Six bowls because of who is ranked above it. Oklahoma and Alabama being in a good spot to win out, along with Texas, creates a barrier that will be tough for the Nittany Lions to eclipse. That, plus Ole Miss looking at only potentially losing to Georgia the rest of the way, does not give them much self-controlled mobility outside of the Michigan game.
