FBI’s October Surprise Not (Yet) a Bombshell with Voters: Hillary Clinton Still Leads in Latest Poll
Hillary Clinton maintains a slim national lead over rival Donald Trump in a new poll conducted after the FBI’s announcement Friday that it was reviewing newfound emails that could be related to the agency’s closed investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.
With just 8 days left until Election Day, Clinton leads Trump 46 percent to 43 percent nationally in a two-way race in the new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, and 42 percent to 39 percent in a four-way race, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 5 percent.
The poll of an online panel of 1,772 likely voters was conducted on Saturday and Sunday and has a 2-point margin of error. In another poll conducted before FBI Director James Comey’s controversial announcement, Clinton led Trump by three points in a four-way race, and five points in a two-way race.
“The race for the White House is tight, but it has not been radically changed by the FBI director’s bombshell announcement last week,” wrote Politico’s Jake Sherman, adding, “Put simply, there is not yet evidence that the revelations have drastically altered the contours of the election.”
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Additionally, 39 percent of voters said the FBI’s review of new emails in the Clinton case will not influence their vote, while 33 percent said it makes them far less likely to vote for Clinton. Politico notes, however, that most of the voters in the latter group were “already aligned against Clinton.” Among the small group of undecided voters, 42 percent said it makes them less likely to vote for Clinton and 41 percent said it makes no difference either way.
Morning Consult cofounder and Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp said, “It is unlikely that there will be a dramatic shift in the polls before Election Day. While Friday’s news may be considered an ‘October Surprise,’ it doesn’t seem to be moving the needle as of now.”
An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday shows Clinton leading Trump 46 to 45 percent, narrower than a Saturday poll in which she had a 2-point lead. The poll found that more than 6 in 10 voters said the FBI’s new review will not impact their vote, while 3 in 10 said it makes them less likely to vote for Clinton.
CNN’s Poll of Polls, which averages the results of the five most recently released national polls, shows Clinton leading Trump by 5 points, 47 to 42 percent.
