How far will Kentucky go in the NCAA Tournament? National experts offer their predictions.

Kentucky has one of the top offenses in college basketball, an electric roster filled with talented players and a realistic path to its first Final Four appearance in nine years.

How far will the Wildcats go?

The Herald-Leader asked college basketball reporters from all over the country for their Final Four predictions for this year’s NCAA Tournament. In addition to those picks, we asked the experts from outside the UK basketball bubble for their take on this Wildcats team and how long they expect Kentucky to be playing in this edition of March Madness.

John Calipari’s Cats haven’t been to a Final Four since 2015, and that’s the drought that often comes up in conversation around the current direction of the program. But Kentucky also hasn’t made it out of the first weekend of NCAA Tournament games since its Elite Eight run in 2019.

Most college basketball observers around the country expect that skid to end by the weekend. Some foresee a new banner in Rupp Arena.

Kentucky’s early games

Of the dozen or so college basketball reporters from outside Kentucky to weigh in on the Wildcats’ specific path, only Ben Bolch — the UCLA beat writer for the Los Angeles Times — predicted that UK would fail to get out of the first week of games.

He has 11-seeded N.C. State upsetting 6-seeded Texas Tech in the first round and then doing the same to the Wildcats in the round of 32 on Saturday. The Wolfpack played their way into the NCAA Tournament by winning five games in five days to snag an automatic bid in the ACC Tournament last week.

(None of our experts predicted 14-seeded Oakland to beat Kentucky on Thursday night.)

If UK does win two games this week, the next destination would be Dallas, home of the South Regional, where 2-seeded Marquette looms as the most likely Sweet 16 opponent, and Houston holds the spot as the 1 seed at the top of the bracket.

Several on the Herald-Leader panel have Kentucky losing to Marquette next Friday, with The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette’s Bob Holt, the New Haven Register’s David Borges and Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook editor Chris Dortch all specifically picking the Golden Eagles to beat the Wildcats in Dallas.

A few panelists mentioned the health of Marquette guard Tyler Kolek — last season’s Big East player of the year — as a key factor. Kolek hasn’t played in three weeks due to injury, but he’s expected to be ready to go for the NCAA Tournament, and — if it is indeed Marquette vs. Kentucky a week from now — he would have two games under his belt by then.

“I’m betting on Tyler Kolek being fully healthy for the tournament,” said Borges, beat writer for the defending national champion UConn Huskies. “Kentucky is very talented, but I just don’t see how you can outscore your way to the Final Four.”

Defense, obviously, has been a concern for these Cats all season long.

CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm also has UK losing in the Sweet 16, as does Jim Meehan, the Gonzaga beat writer for The Spokesman-Review.

“I can truly see the Wildcats winning it all with their high-powered offense or exiting on the first weekend with their defensive issues,” said Meehan, who got a close look at the Cats at the UK-Gonzaga game in Rupp last month. “I’ll settle on something in between: Kentucky advances to the Sweet 16 before its season ends.”

Longtime Kansas City Star sportswriter Blair Kerkhoff has UK going one game further before falling to Houston in the Elite Eight. In addition to the Cougars, he picked all 2 seeds — Arizona, Iowa State and Tennessee — for his other three spots in the Final Four, which was filled with long shots last season.

“Mostly chalk, I know, but it seems like there’s a bracket calm after crazy years,” Kerkhoff said. “Speaking of calm over crazy, I think Kentucky plays to its seed and one game beyond on the strength of its guards.”

CBS Sports college basketball writer Matt Norlander also has Kentucky losing to Houston in the Elite Eight, and he noted the pressure that Calipari is under to make a run with this team.

“I’m trusting the talent to hold form and the defense to be good enough against what, I believe, is actually a really good pod draw for UK,” Norlander said. “It will be really tough for Calipari if he can’t minimally get to the Sweet 16 with this group and that draw.”

Cats in the Final Four

Several of our experts have Kentucky playing in the Final Four in Phoenix next month.

CBS broadcaster Clark Kellogg told the Herald-Leader that he liked the Wildcats to make it all the way to college basketball’s biggest stage. SEC Network announcer Tom Hart also picked UK for the Final Four, though not without reservations.

“The Cats obviously have the firepower to go on a run,” Hart said. “The biggest challenge will be slowing down some talented teams in their path, especially the guard play they could see from the likes of N.C. State, Marquette and Houston on their way.”

Kentucky was scorched by Texas A&M’s guards in its last game, a loss in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals last week.

Mike DeCourcy, the Hall of Fame basketball sportswriter at The Sporting News, also likes Kentucky to make it all the way to Phoenix. He expects a “very unusual tournament,” pointing to last week’s major-conference league tournaments — where N.C. State and Oregon pulled massive upsets in the ACC and Pac-12, specifically — as a precursor to what could be in store starting this week.

“So any bracket projection this season is an exercise in daring. I don’t climb mountains, I make bracket picks,” DeCourcy said. “I chose Kentucky to win the South Region because I believe at their best they are as difficult to cover as any college basketball team. I know the risks involved in that — can they get enough important stops? —and I may pay for them.”

DeCourcy has the Cats losing to rival Tennessee in the national semifinals.

Rodd Baxley, who covers the major North Carolina programs for The Fayetteville Observer, predicts that Kentucky will make it one step further before losing to UConn in the national title game. (Former president Barack Obama also picked UConn over UK for the title while appearing on Calipari’s new podcast this week.)

“This feels like John Calipari’s best chance in quite some time to end the Final Four drought, because the Wildcats have arguably the most talent in the country,” Baxley said. “While it’s hard to trust Kentucky’s defense, its offense has the ability to overcome that weakness and overwhelm teams. I like the Cats’ chances to get to Phoenix.”

Also predicting Kentucky to make it to the Final Four is Matt Cohen, the Auburn beat writer for AL.com, someone with a unique perspective on this Wildcats team. In addition to following UK as a top program in the SEC, he was there for one of the Cats’ biggest wins — that 70-59 upset victory in Auburn last month — which was perhaps Kentucky’s best defensive effort all season.

Auburn, a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament bracket, rolled to the SEC Tournament championship last week, while UK exited after just one game.

“So why did I put Kentucky in the Final Four? Kentucky obviously lost early at the SEC Tournament but has been one of the hottest teams in America over the final month of the season, especially after the Gonzaga game,” Cohen said. “It’s such a talented team with one of the most experienced coaches in this tournament. I’m banking on two things for Kentucky to make a run. First, I think the bracket lays out really nicely for Kentucky. But second, the bigger question is the defense. Kentucky has been horrible defensively, but I can’t get out of my head what I saw in Auburn. If that version of Kentucky can show up, and certainly that Auburn game proved it is possible, then this team can score enough to make a run.

“Kentucky won at both Auburn and Tennessee. The talent and potential is there. Teams that are great on offense and struggle on defense often don’t make it far in March. With this pick, I’m thinking the bracket lays out nicely enough for Kentucky’s poor defense to find some footing like it found at times later this season and score enough to make it to Phoenix.”

The path begins Thursday night in Pittsburgh. And 14-seeded Oakland is first up for the Cats.

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