Fantasy sit-start: Lineup advice on every Week 4 game
Saints vs. Dolphins: Start Jay Cutler, who’s coming off an extremely disappointing game against the Jets and will be traveling for the third straight week (this time to another country). But Cutler is going to be throwing a lot with Jay Ajayi banged up in a game that projects to be a shootout with both teams having allowed the highest YPAs (9.4) in the NFL this season.
Start Willie Snead, as while it’s no sure thing he’ll play a full complement of snaps, he’s back from suspension, Brandin Cooks is gone, and Miami has yielded an NFL-high 116.4 passer rating so far.
Panthers vs. Patriots: Sit Cam Newton, as although the Panthers being near double-digit underdogs in a game with a high O/U (49.5) should result in him having to throw a ton, it’s impossible to trust Newton coming off such a slow start to the season, highlighted by last week’s dud at home against the Saints. And he’s stopped running.
Start Mike Gillislee, who’s on pace to finish with 773 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns. He’s more reliant on TDs than any other fantasy player, but with this game script (nine-point favorites at home against a sputtering Carolina offense), fire him up in Week 4. He’s affordable in DFS.
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Rams vs. Cowboys: Sit Jared Goff, who’s easily been the most improved player in the NFL so far. He looked like a huge bust as the #1 pick last year but sports a 5:1 TD:INT ratio with a 10.1 YPA through three games. But his schedule has been highly favorable, and he now gets a Cowboys defense on the road that’s allowed just 6.6 YPA and recorded the second-most sacks in the NFL.
Start Dak Prescott, who’s totaled six touchdowns while facing the Giants and then two road games against the Broncos and Cardinals. Dallas is a near TD favorite at home against a Rams D that just surrendered Brian Hoyer’s game of his life. A Prescott/Dez Bryant stack sure looks enticing in DFS.
Lions vs. Vikings: Sit Matthew Stafford, as while the Vikings’ defense hasn’t been as good as advertised so far, it should be a unit that improves, and the QB has gotten just 5.9 YPA over the past two weeks.
Start Kyle Rudolph, as just like with Minny’s D, I’m banking on bigger historical sample sizes here. Rudolph has been a huge disappointment so far, but the rest of the Vikings passing attack has been potent, regardless of who’s at QB. The Lions allowed by far an NFL-high Passer Rating last year and have typically been torched by tight ends, so now’s the time to buy low on Rudolph (who led all tight ends in targets last season).
Titans vs. Texans: Start Rishard Matthews, who continues to act as the Titans’ clear No. 1 wide receiver and faces a banged up Texans secondary.
Sit Lamar Miller, whose YPC has dropped for the third straight season. The volume has remained, but D’Onta Foreman looms, and Miller’s Juke Rate (10.9%) ranks No. 74 among all backs in the NFL.
Jaguars vs. Jets: Start Marqise Lee, as while a TD would be nice, he’s seen 19 targets over the past two weeks since Allen Robinson was lost for the season.
Start Bilal Powell, who thrived when Matt Forte was out last season. The Jags’ defense has played well, but ASJ is another cheap DFS option in a messy TE position.
Bengals vs. Browns: Start Joe Mixon, whose snaps took a big jump after the team switched offensive coordinators last week. His arrow is pointing way up and is a top-20 fantasy RB start for me in Week 4.
Sit Isaiah Crowell. He shouldn’t be dropped, but Crowell can’t be trusted to start at this point. He’s gotten 3.7 yards per touch, which ranks No. 70 in the league.
Steelers vs. Ravens: Sit Ben Roethlisberger, whose road struggles are far beyond the time to take seriously. Even after last week’s debacle, the Ravens’ secondary has still ceded the worst Passer Rating (58.5) so far this season.
Sit every Ravens running back, as it’s a full-blown committee, even without Danny Woodhead (and Kenneth Dixon). Even Alex Collins emerged last week. It’s a situation to avoid until there’s more clarity.
Bills vs. Falcons: Start Tyrod Taylor, who’s gotten 7.1 YPA with a 4:1 TD:INT ratio and 106 rushing yards while facing a tough schedule. Taylor is a sneaky start, as he’ll likely have to throw a bunch as eight-point dogs in a projected high-scoring affair against an Atlanta defense that’s not exactly imposing.
Start Julio Jones, who will score a touchdown at some point. Seriously, now is the time to load up on him in DFS.
Giants vs. Buccaneers: Sit Evan Engram, who’s bucked the usual trend by being relevant as a rookie tight end. But that’s mostly because the position has disappointed as a whole, and while I fully believe in Engram long term, he’s still yet to reach 50 yards in a game, and the Bucs have allowed the third-fewest points against tight ends so far in 2017 (admittedly during just a two-game sample).
Start Cameron Brate, as the Giants’ clear weakness on defense is their linebackers.
Eagles vs. Chargers: Start Wendell Smallwood, who’s going to see more passing down work with Darren Sproles out for the year.
Sit Hunter Henry, as he’s seen zero targets in two of three games so far, and the Eagles allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season.
49ers vs. Cardinals: Sit Pierre Garcon, who’s racked up 25 targets already but should be shadowed by lock-down corner Patrick Peterson.
Start Andre Ellington, who clearly looks like the Cardinals’ back to own (he played 49 snaps last week to Chris Johnson’s 31). Carson Palmer should also be treated as a top-six fantasy QB in Week 4.
Raiders vs. Broncos: Sit Amari Cooper, who’s leading the league in drops and is now facing the NFL’s best secondary. Buy him low afterward.
Start Trevor Siemian, who’s coming off a down game yet has thrown six touchdowns over two home outings this year and gets a Raiders defense that’s yielded 8.3 YPA and yet to pick off a pass this season.
Colts vs. Seahawks: Sit Frank Gore, who’s scored during each of his last two games but is at 3.0 YPC on the year and facing a Seattle defense that’s allowed the third fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Start Chris Carson, which may seem obvious, but I’m saying treat Carson as a top-15 RB and load up on him in DFS in this matchup with C.J. Prosise out. Paul Richardson is another sneaky start as Doug Baldwin may not play.
Washington vs. Chiefs: Sit all Washington players. The WRs are a mess. Chris Thompson’s production screams regression. No other RB is worth trusting, and the KC defense is strong (they’ve allowed 6.6 YPA and have recorded the second most sacks (11) in the NFL despite facing the Patriots, Eagles and Chargers).
Start the Chiefs defense, for all the reasons listed above. Also, treat Kareem Hunt as the No. 1 fantasy player moving forward. The total for this game is 49.5 points, so I like the Under here (KC is always conservative on offense).
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